Pro Farmer Crop Tour reports good yield, but puts US soybean crop below USDA’s estimates

The crop cycle, in general, was very good, as evidenced by Pro Farmer’s samples, which showed excellent pod counts in many regions. However, the report indicated expected production lower than USDA’s estimates. According to the crop tour, average soybean yield is around 53 bushels per acre (USDA estimates 53.6), and total production is estimated at approximately 4.246 bln bushels, or about 115.5 mln tons (USDA estimated around 116.8 mln tons in the August report).

If yields indeed decline, the futures market is likely to see positive adjustments, given that US stockpiles could fall from projections of 7.8 to 6.6 mln tons, indicating projected ending stockpiles 26% below the previous season.

In Illinois, quality ratings between good and excellent went from 57% to 60%, compared to 57% the previous week. In Iowa, they rose from 81% to 82%, while in Indiana, they remained virtually unchanged at 63%. In Iowa, the soybean pod count reached 1,384.38 in a three-foot by three-foot area, compared to the three-year average of 1,225.72. Last year, the number was 1,312.3. In Illinois, the soybean pod count reached 1,479.22 in a three-foot by three-foot area, compared to the three-year average of 1,313.14. Last year, the Crop Tour estimated the pod count at 1,419.11 in a three-foot by three-foot area.

For the next 15 days, heavy rainfall is forecast for the US Midwest, especially in the southernmost states. One-to-seven-day weather maps indicate rainfall accumulations close to 50 mm, concentrated on certain days, mainly in Kansas, but not on a daily basis. Even so, the expected rainfall is significant. The heaviest rainfall is expected between August 30 and September 5, with precipitation more evenly distributed, especially in early September. September, in general, tends to be a rainy month in the United States, which could lead to harvest delays in some regions—a factor that, starting in the second half of the month, could bring additional price volatility in Chicago.

Tags: estimate, soybeans, Production, yield, stockpiles