Prices for soybeans in Ukraine continue to decline due to increased supply from South America

Completion of the soybean harvest in Brazil and Argentina and increased exports continue to limit export demand for soybeans in Ukraine and the US, leading to lower prices.

Export prices for soybeans with GMOs continue to decline amid a reduction in the number of companies involved in purchasing. Currently, the price is about $410/t or 18500-19000 UAH/t delivered to the Danube ports, and there are practically no purchases in the Black Sea ports, as the terminals are already preparing to receive new crop rapeseed and barley. Exporters also offer about 420-440 USD/t for soybeans with delivery to Poland and Romania, but the shipping cost remains at about 60-80 USD/t, which does not allow to export profitably in this direction.

Processors also reacted quickly to the drop in export demand and reduced the prices for the purchase of GMO soybeans by 500-1000 UAH/t since the beginning of the month to 17000-18500 UAH/t with delivery to the plant. However, they still have difficulties with the sale of meal and cake. the Growing demand for soybean oil, which has risen in price after sunflower, supports the price of soybeans.

Export prices for non-GMO soybeans also decreased to 450-460 USD/t or 20800-21000 UAH/t with delivery to the Danube ports. There is also a slight increase in demand for supplies to the western border at prices of about 450-465 $/t DAP Poland, Hungary.

In Ukraine, as of June 15, 2.03 mln ha were planted with soybeans out of the forecasted 2 mln ha (1.8 mln ha in 2023), although some analysts predicted the area to increase to 2.2-2.4 mln ha due to the decrease in corn area. However, farmers sowed corn as last year.

In Brazil, the soybean harvest is completed, and the harvest forecasts remain at 147-152 million tons, but some local analysts are already raising their forecasts.

The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange reports that soybeans in Argentina have been harvested on 99% of the area, and the harvest forecast remains at 50.5 mln tonnes, slightly higher than the June USDA estimate.

According to NASS, as of June 16, 93% of the planned areas were planted with soybeans in the United States (97% a year ago and 91% on average for 5 years as of this date), and 93% of the seedlings were received (95% a year ago). During the week, the assessment of crops in good and excellent condition decreased by 2% to 70%, compared to 54% a year ago.

Since the beginning of 2023/24 MY, as of June 13, soybean exports from the United States amounted to 40.88 million tons, down 16.6% from last year’s pace, while USDA forecast 46.3 million tons. Soybean imports to China in may amounted to 10.2 million tons, of which 8.8 million tons came from Brazil and only 1.27 million tons from the United States.

Yesterday on the Chicago stock exchange, the July soybean futures fell 1.7% to 424,5 $/t (-7% for the month), and November – by 1.4% to 410,3 $/t (-8.8%) amid favorable conditions for soybean crops in the United States.

The start of new crop rapeseed deliveries will increase the supply of rapeseed meal, which will further reduce the demand for soybean meal in the EU, which will increase pressure on soybean prices in Ukraine, especially given that the new crop soybean prices are 4% lower than the old crop.

Tags: Ukraine, Brazil, prices, soybean, Argentina