Prices for new crop wheat in Ukraine are falling, although stock market quotes rose after the attack on Russian airfields by Ukrainian drones

The world wheat market is expecting a new harvest, the forecasts for which are quite good. Therefore, in Ukraine, demand for old-crop wheat is almost non-existent, and prices for the new crop are gradually decreasing. Traders note the intensification of sales of the new crop by farmers from the south, which indicates the formation of a good harvest of winter wheat due to favorable precipitation in May.

During the week in Ukraine, demand prices for food wheat of the new harvest fell by $3-4/t to $207-208/t, and for feed wheat – by $2-3/t to $197-198/t with delivery to Black Sea ports, although traders are offering prices $15-18/t higher for June deliveries of old harvest grain.

After a very effective and spectacular strike by Ukrainian drones on Russian military airfields, traders intensified stock market purchases in anticipation of increased tension in the Black Sea, which led to an increase in oil and wheat prices. However, yesterday’s talks in Istanbul showed that the Russians do not have an adequate response and are not withdrawing from negotiations with Ukraine.

July wheat futures in the US rose yesterday:

• by 0.9% to $198/t – for soft winter SRW wheat in Chicago (+2% per week),
• by 1.2% to $198.3/t – for durum winter HRW wheat in Kansas City (+2.9%),
• by 0.3% to $230.5/t – for durum spring HRS wheat in Minneapolis (+5.2%).

September wheat futures on the Euronext Paris exchange rose 0.9% yesterday to €202.5/t or $231.2/t (+0.6%).

Prices for new crop wheat in Europe remain low amid significant stocks of old crops and forecasts of an increase in soft wheat yields in 2025 by 8% to 6.04 t/ha, due to which the wheat harvest, for example, in Germany will increase by 14% compared to the previous year to 21 million t.

According to the USDA’s weekly report, as of June 1, 95% of the planned area was sown with spring wheat (5% more than the 5-year average), and seedlings were obtained on 73% of the area (4% more than the average). During the week, the number of winter wheat crops in the United States in good or excellent condition increased by 2% to 52% (49% last year), and spring wheat – by 5% to 50% (74% last year).

Favorable weather and data on good crop conditions in major exporting countries continue to increase pressure on new crop prices, so there is a high probability of a decline in prices in Ukraine to the level of the beginning of the 2024/25 season, when wheat prices were $180-185/t due to the lack of demand from Europe and strong competition with Russian wheat in North African markets.

Tags: Ukraine, prices, wheat