Potato prices in Moldova rise earlier than usual, potentially reaching 15 lei/kg by spring

Seasonal potato price increases in Moldova have begun earlier than in previous years, with market participants forecasting further growth due to lower domestic production and limited import opportunities. Over the past two weeks, wholesale potato prices have risen by 1.5–2 lei/kg to 6–6.5 lei/kg. High-quality potatoes suitable for washing, sorting and delivery to retail chains were selling at 7 lei/kg at the end of last week. According to market forecasts, wholesale prices could reach 10 lei/kg by the end of 2026 and rise further to 14–15 lei/kg in spring 2027.

One of the main reasons for rising prices is a reduction in potato acreage and yields. According to Moldova’s National Bureau of Statistics, as of June 1, the area planted with potatoes had decreased by 4.5% year-on-year to 23 thsd ha. Another factor was a 10–20% reduction in seed potato supplies due to changes in certification regulations. Meanwhile, even the most technologically advanced farms using drip irrigation recorded maximum yields of around 67 t/ha this year, compared with 76 t/ha a year earlier. As a result, marketable potato production in the 2026/27 season could decline by approximately 10–20%.

A prolonged spring, summer drought and the spread of crop diseases also negatively affected the harvest. Due to unfavorable weather conditions, the quality of a significant share of Moldova’s potato crop was below normal. In late summer, an oversupply of lower-quality potatoes temporarily restrained prices, but the situation changed after the completion of the main harvest. Most potatoes are now being supplied from storage facilities, a transition traditionally accompanied by higher prices. However, this season the shift to sales from storage began earlier, while shortages of high-quality potatoes could accelerate price increases.

The ability to contain prices through imports also remains limited. In previous seasons, Moldova actively purchased relatively inexpensive potatoes from Ukraine and Belarus, but shipments in the 2026/27 marketing year could decline due to high transportation costs and an expected shortage of quality potatoes in Ukraine itself. Ukrainian analysts forecast that prices for high-quality potatoes could rise to 15–20 UAH/kg during winter. Meanwhile, substantial supplies of cheap potatoes from the EU are also unlikely. According to Eurostat’s summer forecasts, potato production in EU countries in 2026 could be 20–30% lower than a year earlier, limiting opportunities for competitively priced imports.

Additional pressure on Moldova’s potato market could emerge in spring 2027, when shipments of early potatoes from Egypt traditionally begin. European traders have already contracted substantial volumes of Egyptian potatoes, which could limit the availability of uncommitted supplies for Moldova and keep purchase prices high. According to market participants, wholesale potato prices could reach 10–12 lei/kg in February 2027 and 14–15 lei/kg in March–April. Thus, the combination of reduced domestic production, lower crop quality and more expensive imports is creating conditions for a prolonged increase in potato prices in Moldova.

Tags: Moldova, potato