Pistachio crisis: How the Iran war is reshaping the global market

The escalating geopolitical tensions around Iran have triggered turbulence in the global pistachio market, valued at $4–5 billion. As a result, this popular snack could become scarce in the coming months, experts warn.

Global pistachio trade is largely dominated by two giants — the U.S. and Iran — which together account for up to 80% of worldwide exports. Any disruption in either of these producers immediately affects consumers around the world.

Analysts estimate that the 2025 harvest produced around 712,000 tons in the U.S., 225,000 tons in Iran, and 135,000 tons in Turkey, with total global output at 1.1–1.2 million tons. The situation worsened when Iran temporarily banned food exports to stabilize its domestic market amid the ongoing conflict.

The market faces several structural challenges: establishing new orchards takes 5–7 years, logistics have become more complicated and costs have risen two- to threefold, and traders’ stockpiles are nearly empty. As a result, analysts forecast double-digit increases in purchase prices in 2026, with further price hikes possible next season if the conflict continues.

U.S. farmers, particularly in California where the bulk of the harvest is concentrated, could theoretically benefit from the situation. However, production capacity is nearly maxed out, and a large portion of the crop is already pre-contracted, meaning the U.S. cannot quickly replace the lost Iranian share. This is another example of how regional conflicts can rapidly translate into global economic risks.

Tags: Iran