Phosphate fertilizers may not become cheaper before autumn

The global fertilizer market is reaching a deadlock: producers are unable to significantly reduce prices due to high production costs, while buyers are reluctant to purchase actively because of weak application economics. The biggest risk is in the phosphate fertilizer segment, which may not see lower prices before the autumn planting season. This was stated by Josh Linville, Vice President of Fertilizers at StoneX.

According to him, the situation on the global phosphate fertilizer market continues to deteriorate. Five countries control most of this market, and several key suppliers are currently facing supply problems.

China, which is usually one of the market leaders, has not exported phosphate fertilizers since the beginning of 2026. Restrictions are expected to remain in place at least until August and possibly longer. Saudi Arabia, due to the strait closure, has been forced to ship products through its western coast, but these volumes are significantly lower than usual.

Additional pressure is coming from weak production in the United States. Mosaic, one of the world’s largest producers of phosphate and potash fertilizers, has already announced downward revisions to its 2026 production plans due to the high cost of sulfur, ammonia and anhydrous ammonia.

Linville noted that high phosphate fertilizer prices could persist despite weak demand.

“As absurd as it may sound, we may have already seen the lowest phosphate price of 2026 — unless there are major changes in the global market,” he said.

According to him, producers have objective reasons to keep prices high because production costs remain elevated. At the same time, buyers also have reasons to delay purchases, as farmers are unwilling to take on additional price risks.

Linville believes this summer could become one of the slowest periods for trading phosphate fertilizers, UAN and urea. Potash fertilizers, in his view, appear to be better valued relative to grain prices, meaning trading activity in that segment could remain stronger.

He also highlighted developments in the nitrogen fertilizer market. Egypt has introduced a $90/t export duty on nitrogen products in an attempt to slow exports and retain more fertilizers for the domestic market. Linville described this as another example of increasingly active government intervention in the fertilizer market.

Why it matters. For Ukrainian farmers, this signals that expectations of a significant decline in phosphate fertilizer prices before the autumn sowing campaign may not materialize. Weak demand alone does not guarantee lower prices if producers continue operating with high production costs or reduce output.

Tags: fertilizers, prices