Persistent precipitation deficit in Brazil and the Black Sea region supports grain price growth

Lack of precipitation in eastern Ukraine and southwestern Russia is holding back winter wheat sowing, while dry conditions in central Brazil are delaying corn and soybean planting. This has led to a speculative rise in prices on the stock exchanges in recent weeks.

In the southern regions of Brazil this week it rained, which will contribute to the sowing, but the Central regions remain too dry. In the state of Mato Grosso next week is expected to be short-term precipitation, but they are not enough to overcome the drought, so farmers postpone sowing until more abundant rain.

The west and north of Argentina are also suffering from drought, which is delaying corn sowing and worsening the condition of winter wheat. Some rain is forecast for next week, but it will not solve the problem.

The western regions of Ukraine are receiving precipitation, while the eastern regions and southwest of Russia have been suffering from drought for several months, which has prevented active sowing of winter wheat. Already planted winter rapeseed and wheat are in poor condition, which reduces the potential of the 2025 harvest.

As of September 23, only 20% of the planned area (878 thousand hectares) was planted with winter wheat in Ukraine. In Russia, as of September 20, 8.3 million hectares (45% of the plan) were planted with winter grains, the lowest figure since 2013.

Over the next week, significant rainfall in the arid regions of Ukraine and Russia is not expected, which will increase pressure on the markets.

In the United States this week there were rains in the Midwest and little precipitation in the Plains, which slightly delays the harvest of corn and soybeans, but improves the condition of winter wheat. Next week is expected to be dry and warm weather, which will contribute to the rapid harvest with good quality and yield.

In the Canadian prairies remain favorable conditions for the completion of the harvest of spring wheat, canola, soybeans and corn. The lack of significant precipitation over the next week will speed up the harvest and reduce crop losses.

In Europe, this week and next week are expected to be heavy rainfall and winds, especially in France, Germany and the UK, which will improve soil moisture, but will delay the harvest of late crops and sowing of winter wheat.

Growing regions in Australia will receive sufficient rainfall to improve the condition of crops and increase the yield potential of wheat, barley and canola.

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Tags: EU, Black Sea region, drought, USA, crop condition, Argentina, Ukraine, Brazil