Pakistani wheat production is expected to drop 13% from last season’s record production due to a decrease in area and dry weather, but rice will see a slight increase on strong export demand and positive returns, according to a report from the Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) of the US Department of Agriculture.
Wheat production in 2025-26 is forecast at 27.5 million tonnes, down from 31.6 million tonnes. The government’s decision to stop procuring wheat at guaranteed prices and dry weather are the primary reasons for the decline, the FAS said.
Consumption is estimated at 31.9 million tonnes, a slight increase from the previous year. Imports are estimated at 1.7 million tonnes, but the size of the wheat crop ultimately will determine the amount of imports.
“As of March 2025, imports are banned, so the government will have to reauthorize imports and decide whether to allow private importers or the state-run Trade Corporation of Pakistan do the import business,” the FAS said. “The government is moving forward with its strategy to completely liberalize the wheat market, eliminating the guaranteed support price for farmers, and halting government procurement and distribution.”
Wheat and wheat flour prices in March 2025 were 35% lower than the high levels of a year earlier.
Assuming stable area and average yields, rice production in 2025-26 is forecast at 9.8 million tonnes. Rice consumption during the same period is forecast at 4.2 million tonnes.
Exports are pegged at 5.8 million tonnes, supported by competitive pricing in international markets and strong demand from Southeast Asian countries like the Philippines, Malaysia, and Indonesia.
Corn production in 2025-26 is forecast at 9.6 million tonnes based on a slight increase in area and five-year average yield. Overall consumption is estimated at 9.1 million tonnes, up from 8.9 million tonnes in 2024-25.
The poultry sector is the largest user of corn, and a ban on genetically-engineered soybean imports in October 2022 adversely impacted the poultry industry. This reduced demand for corn.
However, the government’s reauthorization of GE soybean imports in late 2024 will provide a boost to the feed compounding sector and demand for corn in 2025-26, the FAS said.
“Traditionally, poultry feed accounts for about 65% of corn use, while wet milling and dairy feed comprise about 15% and 10%, respectively,” it said. “The remainder is milled for flour for human consumption.”
Exports are forecast to decline to 600,000 tonnes.
“The ultimate level of exports will hinge on the final output, world corn prices, and the state of the domestic poultry industry,” the FAS said.
