Падение цен на твердую пшеницу до $234 прогнозируют в Канаде

The durum harvest in Canada is very high, which will cause prices to fall. According to Statistics Canada, durum wheat has already been harvested from 2.6 million hectares with an average yield of just over 24 c/ha. This has allowed the country to put 6 million tons of grain into elevators. Including carryover, Canada’s total durum supply is forecast at 6.5 million tons, a 39% increase over 2023 yields of just 17 c/ha with comparable planted acreage.

Global trade is on the rise

Canadian domestic durum wheat consumption is relatively stable and is forecast at 0.77 million tons, while ending stocks are estimated to rise to 0.9 million tons.

The Canadian Grain Commission (CGC) reports that as of the end of October 2024, Canadian durum wheat exports through the licensed elevator system are about 25% higher than the same period last year. Exports for the entire current season are forecast at 4.8 million tons. Experts note high demand for durum in Europe and North Africa. In favor of Canadian durum is also the factor of reduced competition from Turkey and Russia, which last season played a significant role in supplies to key export markets.

The International Grains Council forecasts that in the 2024-2025 season, world durum wheat production will grow by 12% to 35.1 million tons, which will be the highest since the 2018-2019 season. World trade will grow accordingly, to 9.7 million tons, up 3% from the previous year.

Saskatchewan’s forecast average Canadian durum wheat price from the producer (13% protein) for 2024-2025 is CAD 325 per tonne ($234).

Last season, the price was much higher at $425 CAD ($304) per ton.

Kazakhstan durum goes to Europe

Kazakhstan’s main market for durum wheat is Europe. From the beginning of the current marketing year (July 1) to November 4, Kazakhstan delivered 36.4 thousand tons of durum wheat to the European Union, taking a market share of 10.6%. This is the fourth position among exporters to the EU. Above are the U.S. (62.6 thousand tons), Canada (76.3 thousand tons) and Turkey (165.8 thousand tons).

During the last marketing year, Kazakhstan delivered 176.7 thousand tons of durum wheat to Europe (market share of 14.4%).

The average price of durum wheat in Italy in November is about 320 euros per ton (delivery to Bologna).

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Tags: prices, Canada