Pace of Chinese imports of US soybeans moves into market focus

Analysts are closely monitoring the pace of soybean purchases by China as a key deadline for fulfilling import commitments approaches. According to Tanner Ehmke of CoBank, China still has a limited window to meet its obligation to import 12 million tonnes of U.S. soybeans, and while buying activity continues, a noticeable acceleration will be needed in the coming four to five weeks.

The U.S. administration recently extended the original deadline from December 31 to the end of February, giving Chinese buyers additional time to finalize contracts and shipments. The extension is intended to support ongoing trade flows and provide more flexibility for purchases before the marketing season progresses further.

However, Ehmke notes that current buying volumes may still fall short of the required level despite regular transactions. One of the main constraints remains the 13% tariff applied to U.S. soybeans imported by private crushers in China, which reduces the competitiveness of American supplies compared with alternative origins.

At the same time, analysts point to the prospect of a record soybean crop in Brazil, which could intensify competition in January and the following months. As a result, China’s purchasing pace in the near term is expected to play a decisive role in shaping export prospects and price dynamics for U.S. soybeans.

Tags: soybean, USA, China