October sees world grain prices starting to rally

The Agricultural and Horticultural Supply Board (AHDB) has confirmed a rally in world grain prices over recent days.

Depending on the cereal type, future markets have edged forward by between 1.5% and 3.0% during the past week.

The rally through most of the period was driven by dry weather in key producing countries, the escalation of crises in the Middle East and a surge in demand.

However, towards the end of the week, prices were weighed on by profit-taking and a strengthening of the US dollar.

Meanwhile, the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) has published its third quarter stock estimates.

Wheat inventories were estimated at 54.0 Mt, slightly above 53.7 Mt analysts expected. Maize stocks were reported at 44.7 Mt, 4.6% lower than analysts’ estimate (LSEG).

Prolonged dry weather in parts of Argentina is affecting the country’s wheat production. The adverse conditions have led to an increase in abandoned wheat fields and pest outbreaks, which could further impact overall wheat yields.

However, maize planting is in progress, with 14% of the expected 6.3 Mha already completed this season.

In Australia, a dry start to spring and widespread frost damage in New South Wales, Victoria, and South Australia, has negatively affected crop potential.

SovEcon lowered its 2024/25 Russian wheat export forecast by 0.5 Mt to 47.6 Mt due to bad weather affecting harvest. Despite this, the agency noted that wheat exports from Russia are progressing rapidly, supported by higher stock levels.

In addition, Egypt’s state buyer, GASC, has agreed to a private deal to purchase wheat totalling 3.12 Mt of wheat from November to April this season from the Black Sea region.

More generally, where maize is concerned, tighter than expected stock levels in the US and poor yields in Europe could lend support short-term.

However, global supplies are currently expected to be sufficient this season.

Slower planting progress in Europe, due to poor weather, are creating a longer-term watch point for barley. However, short-term barley prices continue to follow the trends in the broader grains market.

Meanwhile, autumn cereal planting levels in Ireland are well up, year-on-year. Field work has been boosted by the excellent weather conditions of September.

This trend is expected to be maintained over the coming days.

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Tags: export, estimates, grain, The Agricultural and Horticultural Supply Board, barley, prices, Production, wheat, AHDB, forecast, dry weather, stocks, USDA, maize