Next Three Months in Argentina – Lot of Heat and Normal Rainfall

The National Meteorological Service of Argentina (SMN) published its quarterly climate forecast last week for the period December-January-February and they are expecting a hot summer with normal rainfall in the main agricultural areas.

Temperatures are expected to be above normal in most of Argentina except for the far northeastern and southern areas. Temperatures during September and October ranked first in the historical series (last 64 years). November was not as extreme, although it ranked 12th in the ranking. Given the current forecast, 2024 will probably end up being the second warmest in the last 64 years only behind 2023.

As far as rainfall is concerned over the next three months, the picture is uneven. The Pampa region is finally forecasted to receive normal rain after months with scarce rainfall. Patagonia is forecasted to receive below normal rainfall while western and northern areas are forecasted to receive normal-to-above-normal rainfall.

This is generally a favorable forecast for the corn and soybean crops in Argentina if temperatures are not extreme. The soil moisture in Argentina has not been recharged and any prolonged period of dry weather will result in moisture stress, so the precipitation in Argentina needs to be watched. Below left is the 3-month precipitation forecast and below right is the temperature forecast from the National Meteorological Service of Argentina.

Tags: climate forecast, corn, rainfall, soybeans, dry weather, temperatures, Argentina