New Turkish corn quota raises prices in Ukraine by $1-2

On May 1, the Turkish government announced a new quota for duty-free imports of 1 million tons of corn, valid until July 31, 2025, which has already reduced domestic prices from $265-270/ton to $255-260/ton.

According to ASAP Agri, active corn imports to Turkey exceeded the quota of 1 million tons set on March 18 (since then, 1.3 million tons have been shipped and another 500 thousand tons have been contracted), so only about 500 thousand tons of corn will need to be supplied under the new quota. If the issue with the GMO content is resolved, this amount can be covered by American corn, which is $ 15 / ton cheaper than Ukrainian.

In Ukraine, increased demand from Turkey has led to an increase in export prices for corn from $220/t to $240/t. This week, prices have increased by another $1-2/t to $239-243/t or UAH 11,200-11,350/t due to a supply shortage as farmers are sowing rather than selling corn.

Processors in Ukraine have stopped buying expensive corn or reduced its prices and switched to feed wheat, the supply of which has increased sharply, while export demand and prices remain at a low level of $224-226/t or UAH 10,600. Currently, wheat delivered to the mill is being offered at UAH 10,200-10,300/t.

July corn futures on the Chicago Board of Trade fell 2.5% to $185.8/t (+1.5% month-on-month) on favorable weather and accelerated planting, as well as a decline in export sales.

During April 18-24, US corn export sales fell to a 3-week low of 1 million tons, and the volume of processing into ethanol since the beginning of the season amounted to 81.5 million tons of corn, which is only 0.5% higher than the corresponding figure last year, although analysts expected a greater increase.

Dry weather in Argentina is allowing for faster corn harvesting, which, according to the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange, has been threshed on 31% of the area.

Favorable weather for corn sowing in the US, EU, and Ukraine is increasing pressure on new crop prices and limiting the growth in prices for the old crop, so Ukrainian farmers should accelerate sales of leftovers at still high prices.

Tags: Ukraine, corn, prices