Morocco’s Wheat Buyers Bet on France as Global Grain Market Booms

Morocco will rely on foreign wheat in the 2025-26 season as global suppliers boost output and reshape trade flows, traders said this week at a Middle East–Africa grain conference. France is now Morocco’s top supplier in a crowded and volatile market.

French exports of soft wheat to Morocco could reach 3.5 million metric tons next season, more than double last year’s volume, according to Philippe Heusele of Intercéréales. Morocco plans to import about 5.5 million tons in total. If targets hold, France would supply nearly two-thirds of the country’s imports.

The talks took place as global wheat output hit a historic high. Dan Basse, president of AgResource, said world yields now average 3.76 tons per hectare, despite no major growth in cultivated land. He said stocks among key exporters have climbed to levels unseen in decades, with stock-to-use ratios back in the low 20% range.

Yet risks persist. “Climate and Black Sea geopolitics remain the main weak points,” Basse said, pointing to threats against Ukrainian infrastructure.

Morocco depends on wheat imports to feed its population. Combined local output of soft and durum wheat reached about 3.5 million tons in 2025. Annual demand nears 10 million tons, according to FAO estimates. To protect the domestic market, the government extended subsidies for soft wheat imports through Dec. 31. The plan grants fixed premiums to importers to support supply and limit price spikes.

French wheat is going into the season with strong volumes and steady quality. Roland Guiragossian of Intercéréales said France had harvested about 35.3 million tons in 2024-25. “More than 90% of the planted area has bread-making varieties,” he said. French shipments have already moved to Morocco, Egypt and West Africa.

Competition is robust. “We also review Russian, German and Polish offers, plus arrivals from Argentina where prices appeal,” said Omar Yacoubi, head of Morocco’s national federation of grain and pulse traders.

The United States now ships more wheat to Morocco as well. Ian Flagg of US Wheat Associates said US production is close to 54 million tons despite slightly lower acreage. Exports are running about 12% above the 10-year average. Sub-Saharan Africa bought close to 1.5 million tons.

Australia posted another near-record crop at about 36 million tons. William Reid of CBH Group said protein levels fell across much of Western Australia. “High-grade bread wheat now makes up a small share of total output,” he said. Australia still swings toward African buyers when South American or Black Sea supply tightens.

Black Sea exporters lifted total output by roughly 10 to 11 million tons over last season, said Indrek Aigro of Copenhagen Merchants. Early exports met delays from attacks on ports, tighter vessel checks and poor weather.

Aigro said the combined share of Russia’s and Ukraine’s global wheat trade will stay below one-third as France, Canada and the Americas gain ground.

Quality is now driving prices as much as volumes. Xavier Magi of ME Solaris said Russian wheat varies with some above 15% protein alongside large feed-grade volumes. “Russian 12.5% protein wheat now sets the global bread standard,” he said.

Argentina harvested more than 26 million tons. Much of it runs at feed-grade protein near 10.5%. That gap widens the spread between bread wheat and feed wheat, opening more room for Russian sales across North Africa and the Middle East.

China no longer anchors global demand. Basse said China once bought 10 to 13 million tons a year. Today it buys closer to 2 to 4 million. Reid put future purchases at a steady 4 to 5 million tons.

Farmers now shape the market as much as traders. Reid said Australian growers are holding back sales at current prices. In France, Guiragossian said low prices and higher input costs are tightening margins. Across Europe, Aigro said on-farm storage keeps rising. “Storage means independence,” he said.

For Morocco, the message runs clear. Global wheat looks abundant. Quality, port logistics and farmer behavior now decide access and price in a market where surplus still carries risk.

Tags: soft wheat, exports, France, wheat, imports, output, Morocco, durum wheat, demand