Morocco’s 2025 wheat crop below 10-year average despite heavy March rains

Despite significant rainfall in March, Morocco’s 2025 wheat crop is expected to remain below the 10-year average, according to a recent report by the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Foreign Agricultural Service (USDA FAS).

While production is forecast to be slightly higher than the drought-affected levels of 2024, hot and dry weather early in the growing season, coupled with a reduced planted area, will limit overall wheat output.

«Crops planted earlier in the season appear considerably weaker and are expected to yield well below average due to prolonged dry conditions from December through February», the report explains. However, crops sown later in the season «are showing more promising conditions», thanks to improved soil moisture following the heavy March rains.

The report, released on March 31, estimates Morocco’s 2025/26 wheat production at 1.7 million metric tons (MMT) for common wheat, 1.1 MMT for durum wheat, and 700,000 metric tons (MT) for barley. Although slightly higher than the 2024/25 season, these figures remain below the 10-year average.

To meet domestic demand and maintain stock levels, Morocco is expected to import 7.3 MMT of wheat and 0.9 MMT of barley in the 2025/26 marketing year. The USDA’s projections follow field visits in March 2025, which confirmed below-average vegetation growth in Morocco’s wheat and barley crops, particularly in the southern regions of Marrakesh–Tensift–El Haouz and Souss-Massa.

Traditionally reliant on France for wheat imports, Morocco expanded its supplier base in 2024/25 to include Germany, Canada, Russia, Romania, and Poland. Russia, in particular, has emerged as a significant supplier, with Moroccan wheat imports from Russia reaching 960,137 MT between June 1 and December 30, 2024—an increase of 278% compared to the same period in 2023.

The report also refers to the cancellation of Eid Al-Adha celebrations due to consecutive years of drought, a decision expected to significantly affect barley imports and feed consumption. Barley is primarily used as animal feed, and for the 2025/26 marketing year, a significant decline in feed consumption is anticipated, primarily due to a sharp reduction in livestock numbers in Morocco.

Current projections indicate a decrease of around 42 percent in feed consumption compared to the previous year, linked to the ongoing impact of several years of drought. Total barley consumption is forecasted at 1.6 MMT, with industrial barley use remaining relatively stable.

Tags: dry weather, yield, imports, Morocco, USDA, durum wheat, barley, feed consumption, Production, demand, wheat, estimates, drought, crop, forecast