Morocco bets on French wheat as global grain output surges

Morocco is set to rely heavily on wheat imports in the 2025/26 season as global producers expand output and reshape trade flows. According to participants of the Middle East–Africa Grain Conference, France is strengthening its position as the country’s leading supplier amid intensifying competition on the world market.

French soft wheat shipments to Morocco could reach 3.5 million metric tons next season — more than double last year’s volume — said Intercéréales representative Philippe Heusele. Morocco plans to import around 5.5 million tons in total, meaning France could cover nearly two-thirds of the country’s needs. This comes at a time of record global wheat production and rising exporter stocks.

However, risks remain. AgResource president Dan Basse warned that climate volatility and geopolitical tensions in the Black Sea region continue to weigh on the market, threatening Ukrainian export infrastructure. For Morocco — which consumes nearly 10 million tons of wheat annually but produced only about 3.5 million tons in 2025 — stable import flows are essential. The government has extended soft wheat import subsidies until December 31 to support supply and curb price spikes.

France enters the new season with a strong harvest of about 35.3 million tons and a high share of bread-making varieties. Intercéréales’ Roland Guiragossian noted that more than 90% of planted area is devoted to milling-quality wheat, with shipments already moving to Morocco, Egypt and West Africa. Meanwhile, competition is intensifying as Morocco also evaluates offers from Russia, Germany, Poland and Argentina.

Major exporters worldwide are showing mixed results. The United States has boosted shipments on the back of a 54-million-ton crop, while Australia harvested nearly 36 million tons, albeit with lower protein levels. Black Sea producers increased output by 10–11 million tons but face logistical delays due to port attacks and adverse weather.

In the global market, wheat quality, logistics and farmer behavior are becoming as influential as volumes. The gap between high-protein and feed-grade wheat continues to widen, while China’s reduced imports reshape demand patterns. For Morocco, the message is clear: despite abundant global supplies, access and pricing will hinge on grain quality, port stability and the sales strategies of farmers in exporting countries.

Tags: France, wheat, Morocco