Middle East conflict could hit fertilizer market harder than Israel-Iran war in 2025 — Rabobank

The war in the Middle East is already disrupting global fertilizer markets, pushing up prices and creating supply-side risks. Rabobank analysts expect the current conflict to have a deeper and longer-lasting impact on fertilizer markets than the 12-day war between Israel and Iran in June 2025, in particular through disruptions to supplies through the Strait of Hormuz, Rabobank said in a report.

The strait accounts for about 25-30% of global nitrogen fertilizer exports, but since the conflict escalated, vessel traffic through it has declined sharply. This has led to disruptions in supplies from the Gulf, North Africa and the Eastern Mediterranean.

In the 48 hours since the first strikes on Iran, urea prices in North Africa have risen by almost 20%, while natural gas prices in Europe have jumped by around 45%, underscoring the region’s key role in global fertilizer supplies.

Analysts say the current market disruption is more widespread and complex than during the 12-day war between Israel and Iran in 2025. If the conflict drags on or intensifies, it could lead to a prolonged supply squeeze and further increases in fertilizer prices.

Rabobank estimates that significant volumes of global fertilizer and raw material trade are at risk of disruption, including 44% of urea exports, 27% of ammonia exports and around 25% of phosphate fertilizer exports.

Experts also warn that rising fertilizer prices could increase financial pressures on farmers. Fertilizers typically account for 40–50% of variable costs of grain production, so their price increase quickly affects the profitability of agricultural production.

At the same time, the situation on the agricultural market looks somewhat more stable. According to Rabobank, global grain and oilseed stocks remain sufficient, so the impact of the conflict on prices so far is mainly due to increased energy costs and freight costs.

Experts expect that in the event of further escalation of the conflict, fertilizer prices may remain elevated for a long time, which will increase pressure on the profitability of farmers around the world.

Tags: fertilizers, war, prices