May rapeseed quotes in Paris are trading €36/t higher than futures for the new crop

May canola futures in Paris continued to rise this week amid tight supply, but forecasts of a larger harvest in the new season and low canola prices in Canada and Australia are limiting the rise in new crop canola prices.

On the Paris exchange, May rapeseed futures fell 14% in the first half of March, but rose 11.8% in the second half to €521/t or $562/t, losing 2.1% in the month due to uncertainty over canola supplies from Canada to the EU after the imposition of tariffs. Meanwhile, August new crop rapeseed futures fell 9% in the first half of March, but rose 5.6% in the second half to €482.75/t or $520.8/t, and are trading €38.25/t cheaper than the old crop.

According to the monthly FEDIOL Crush report, in February the EU-27 and the UK reduced rapeseed processing by 13% compared to January to 1.447 million tonnes, which was the lowest figure since June 2024.

The unclear prospects for canola supplies from Canada to the US and China could sharply reduce canola plantings in Canada, which has already led to a slight increase in quotes.

After falling 15.2% in the second week of March, May canola futures rose 7.1% in the two following weeks to 600 CAD/t or $419/t and are trading $143/t cheaper than May futures in Paris. At the same time, November canola futures for the new crop are also trading at 600 CAD/t, as are the old crop.

Amid the imposition of tariffs on Canada, the world’s largest canola exporter, Australian canola prices have also fallen by $50–70/t. Non-GMO canola currently costs around AUD 810 or $510/t, while GMO canola costs AUD 685 or $431/t from Western Australia.

The market awaits forecasts for soybean planting in the US and canola in Canada, as well as a decision on the imposition of relevant tariffs on US actions, which will significantly change trade flows in the new season.