MARKET SIGNALS TO WATCH, September 15 – 22

UkrAgroConsult shares key highlights from Weekly Grain & Oilseed Reports (September 15 – 22, 2025).

Subscribe to Black Sea & Danube Grain Report and Black Sea & Danube Oilseed Report for the detailed market coverage.

Black Sea & Danube region:

• USDA/FAO point to larger world crops and higher ending stocks. Does this mean it’s a buyer’s market?
• Black Sea & Danube wheat faces price declines and tough competition
• Slow russian exports give EU/Black Sea a small window — but short term if pace increases
• Serbia faces drop in corn yields due to drought
• Corn yield declines generating risks to corn area in 2026
• SFS crushers face a second tight year
• HO market shifts to HO SFO due to olive oil shortage
• Egypt purchases confirm strong demand for Black Sea SFO despite price uncertainties
• More RPS/PSO from non-traditional origins like Moldova in 2025/26
• Kazakhstan’s ambition is to become a top global flaxseed exporter

Ukraine:

• Export tariffs increased soybean and rapeseed meal and oil exports
• In 2025/26, grain market is a buyer’s market, larger crops from various origins are resulting in fierce competition
• Ukrainian wheat prices decline
• Corn prices and demand are rising, but harvest rates are lagging behind y/y
• Weak barley market as China stopped purchases and competition in MENA regions intensifies
• Prospects for the new sunflower crop remain bleak. Yields remain below 2 mt/ha
• Lack of moisture is once again the main risk factor for winter rapeseed
• Sunflower oil export is limited with highly likely increase in October

Analytical articles are also available in the AgriSupp platform.

Tags: EU, Oilseed, soybean, Ukraine, Black Sea region, China, wheat, sunflower oil, sunseed, harvest, rapeseed, corn, crop forecast, grain, Danube region, Romania, price