MARKET SIGNALS TO WATCH, May 9 – 16, 2025

CONTENT Black Sea & Danube Grain / Oilseed Report:

Black Sea & Danube Grain Report: https://ukragroconsult.com/en/publication/black-sea-danube-grain-report/

Black Sea & Danube Oilseed report: https://ukragroconsult.com/en/publication/black-sea-danube_vegoil-report/

All articles are available in the AgriSupp platform: https://agrisupp.com/en

May 9 – 16, 2025

• EU quotas or duties on Ukraine will tighten Black Sea competition and reshape flows
• Black Sea & Danube: weather – too much rain, not enough margin
• Less cargo, more cash: Ukraine’s ag exports are playing a new game in the 2024/25
• Corn in 2025/26: Watch China, Brussels, and the Danube — they will set the rules of the game
• Turkey new corn quota: Black Sea corn to find short-term demand increase but only within the quota
• 2025/26: Black Sea & Danube wheat under pressure, corn story looks more bullish
• Global 2025/26 SFS and rapeseed crop forecasts rule out any sharp price rally
• SFS planting pace is the slowest since 2020, while soybean planting is moving at a record pace
• Forward prices for rapeseed are 80–90 USD/t higher y/y
• Possible pause in US–China tariffs is treated as a bullish signal
• Grain prices in Ukraine are gradually declining as the 2025 harvest approaches
• Moldova export logistics: Underestimated but quietly becoming a strategic logistics hub
• Frost risk in Ukraine: rapeseed crop damage by late spring freezes are fueling concern about regional supply
• Soybeans: Market watching US–China talks closely. Brazil still dominates the long-term flow to Asia
• Vegetable oils: Soy oil leads, palm oil lags but palm is becoming more price-attractive

Tags: Black Sea region, wheat, Ukraine, sunseed, Russia, rapeseed, China, crop forecast, Bulgaria, Turkey, grain, barley, price, EU