MARKET SIGNALS TO WATCH, May 30 – June 6, 2025

CONTENT Black Sea & Danube Grain / Oilseed Report:
Black Sea & Danube Grain Report: https://ukragroconsult.com/en/publication/black-sea-danube-grain-report/
Black Sea & Danube Oilseed report: https://ukragroconsult.com/en/publication/black-sea-danube_vegoil-report/
All articles are available in the AgriSupp platform: https://agrisupp.com/en
- UA Market Outlook: Are agrarian strategies turning into short-term ones?
- Black Sea region expecting a record wheat and barley harvest in 2025/26
- Record Black Sea region harvest means intense competition, especially in wheat and corn markets
- Black Sea & Danube region: Agricultural Strategy in Focus. Ukraine, Romania
- The logistics, pricing, and geopolitics of the 2025/26 will dictate not just export volumes but also survival margins
- 2025/26 Outlook: Logistics mill more and more shape margins
- Freight rates hit multi-year lows, boosting FOB margins and increasing competitiveness of UA origin
- Handling and freight costs likely to rebound in H2 2025 amid growing volumes
- Black Sea wheat futures are an extra risk management tool, enabling effective hedging. Trade flows via Constanta will likely to increase
- russia is set for record oilseed acreage and output in 2025
- Market volatility is back – buyers turn cautious and selective
- Demand for veg oils and meals remains strong, particularly from Asia and MENA. Oilseed and meal exports in June 1–4 already outpace May figures
- Sunflower planting in UA gains rates and closes previous delays
- Rapeseed forward contracts remain sluggish, despite nearing harvest
- Sunflower prices surge, driven by HO segment (up to +75% y/y)
- EUDR Compliance: Ukraine seeks recognition as a low-risk country under the EU Deforestation Regulation (EUDR), a critical factor for oilseeds exports to the EU
- Weather volatility continues – early summer brings unstable temperatures
Read also
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