MARKET SIGNALS TO WATCH, May 30 – June 6, 2025

CONTENT Black Sea & Danube Grain / Oilseed Report:

Black Sea & Danube Grain Report: https://ukragroconsult.com/en/publication/black-sea-danube-grain-report/

Black Sea & Danube Oilseed report: https://ukragroconsult.com/en/publication/black-sea-danube_vegoil-report/

All articles are available in the AgriSupp platform: https://agrisupp.com/en

• UA Market Outlook: Are agrarian strategies turning into short-term ones?
• Black Sea region expecting a record wheat and barley harvest in 2025/26
• Record Black Sea region harvest means intense competition, especially in wheat and corn markets
• Black Sea & Danube region: Agricultural Strategy in Focus. Ukraine, Romania
• The logistics, pricing, and geopolitics of the 2025/26 will dictate not just export volumes but also survival margins
• 2025/26 Outlook: Logistics mill more and more shape margins
• Freight rates hit multi-year lows, boosting FOB margins and increasing competitiveness of UA origin
• Handling and freight costs likely to rebound in H2 2025 amid growing volumes
• Black Sea wheat futures are an extra risk management tool, enabling effective hedging. Trade flows via Constanta will likely to increase
• russia is set for record oilseed acreage and output in 2025
• Market volatility is back – buyers turn cautious and selective
• Demand for veg oils and meals remains strong, particularly from Asia and MENA. Oilseed and meal exports in June 1–4 already outpace May figures
• Sunflower planting in UA gains rates and closes previous delays
• Rapeseed forward contracts remain sluggish, despite nearing harvest
• Sunflower prices surge, driven by HO segment (up to +75% y/y)
• EUDR Compliance: Ukraine seeks recognition as a low-risk country under the EU Deforestation Regulation (EUDR), a critical factor for oilseeds exports to the EU
• Weather volatility continues – early summer brings unstable temperatures

Tags: sunflower oil, sunseed, harvest, rapeseed, corn, crop forecast, grain, Danube region, Romania, price, EU, Oilseed, soybean, Black Sea region, Ukraine, wheat