MARKET SIGNALS TO WATCH, May 16 – 23, 2025

CONTENT Black Sea & Danube Grain / Oilseed Report:

Black Sea & Danube Grain Report: https://ukragroconsult.com/en/publication/black-sea-danube-grain-report/

Black Sea & Danube Oilseed report: https://ukragroconsult.com/en/publication/black-sea-danube_vegoil-report/

All articles are available in the AgriSupp platform: https://agrisupp.com/en

• Ukraine domestic logistics remain low for short-term helping traders shift routes beyond EU quotas
• Strong domestic crush demand decreased the export share in total soy production to 58%
• New crop rapeseed prices are trending higher, driven by limited forward supply and cautious farmer selling
• Soybean planting is advancing impressively, while sunflower sowing is lagging behind
• Ukraine’s soybean area is the second highest on record, supporting crushing and export strategies into Q4
• Growing Ukraine veg oils and meals exports to Asia and the Middle East, increasingly diversifying away from its traditional European buyers
• UkrAgroConsult: Export demand for oilseeds and products is forecasted to be strong in Q3
• Saudi tender sends strong price signal: Global wheat market heats up
• Wheat: Prices likely to remain under pressure until harvest, but weather risks in the EU and lower farmer selling may slow the correction
• Poor returns, weather volatility, and mycotoxin risks are pushing farmers away from corn
• Barley: Solid export demand could support prices in the near term
• Freight market calm, with plenty of spare vessels keeping rates stable
• russia will eliminate minimum export price by the 2024/25 season end. However, aftereffects of this decision are unclear
• Spring crops: Weather remains the wild card. If summer turns dry, the corn and sunflower outlook could deteriorate fast
• Cool spring weather delayed sunflower development, agrochemical usage is now critically important

Tags: Black Sea region, wheat, Ukraine, sunseed, Russia, rapeseed, China, crop forecast, Bulgaria, Turkey, grain, barley, price, EU