MARKET SIGNALS TO WATCH, June 27 – July 4, 2025

CONTENT Black Sea & Danube Grain / Oilseed Report:

Black Sea & Danube Grain Report: https://ukragroconsult.com/en/publication/black-sea-danube-grain-report/

Black Sea & Danube Oilseed report: https://ukragroconsult.com/en/publication/black-sea-danube_vegoil-report/

All articles are available in the AgriSupp platform: https://agrisupp.com/en

Ukraine

• Ukrainian Winter Wheat Harvesting is rolling, Ukraine’s 2025/26 wheat season is underway
• Heading into mid-summer, the south and southeast of Ukraine remain at high risk of moisture stress
• Ukraine’s export share via Greater Odesa ports jumped from 50% (’23/24) to 82% (’24/25)
• In 2024/25, Ukraine shipped 54.2 M mt of agri-goods (–19% y/y) even under military threats
• Charter rates plunged to lows, underpinning Ukraine’s price edge on global markets

Black Sea & Danube region

• The Black Sea–Danube region remains the world’s essential wheat and corn exporter
• Weather & Geopolitics are still the market’s biggest wild cards—hard to model but impossible to ignore
• 2025 Harvest Estimates: Black Sea and Danube countries will harvest 145 M mt of wheat and 80 M mt of corn
• EU Quota Cap: Brussels capped Ukrainian wheat imports at 1.3 M mt/year, Kyiv has to find new buyers in MENA and Asia
• MENA Corn Share: Black Sea countries are losing their share of the MENA corn market to Brazil
• Critical situation with corn in Serbia due to prolonged drought
• Poland: Improved wheat yield due to favorable weather
• 2025 Oilseed Boom: Sunflower plus soy are set to push regional output to record highs
• Sunflower Tease: New-crop bids for October deliveries are quietly firming
• Sunflower seed traders face a tug-of-war between tight early-season supplies and arriving  soon harvest volumes
• Rising soybean supplies keep crushers activity through May–August, capping sharp price spikes
• Rapeseed 2025 yields are up y/y
• As India’s import window opens, expect a price war between Ukrainian and russian sunflower oil shipments

Tags: Black Sea region, Ukraine, wheat, sunflower oil, sunseed, harvest, rapeseed, corn, crop forecast, grain, Danube region, Romania, price, EU, Oilseed, soybean