MARKET SIGNALS TO WATCH, June 27 – July 4, 2025

CONTENT Black Sea & Danube Grain / Oilseed Report:
Black Sea & Danube Grain Report: https://ukragroconsult.com/en/publication/black-sea-danube-grain-report/
Black Sea & Danube Oilseed report: https://ukragroconsult.com/en/publication/black-sea-danube_vegoil-report/
All articles are available in the AgriSupp platform: https://agrisupp.com/en
Ukraine
- Ukrainian Winter Wheat Harvesting is rolling, Ukraine’s 2025/26 wheat season is underway
- Heading into mid-summer, the south and southeast of Ukraine remain at high risk of moisture stress
- Ukraine’s export share via Greater Odesa ports jumped from 50% (’23/24) to 82% (’24/25)
- In 2024/25, Ukraine shipped 54.2 M mt of agri-goods (–19% y/y) even under military threats
- Charter rates plunged to lows, underpinning Ukraine’s price edge on global markets
Black Sea & Danube region
- The Black Sea–Danube region remains the world’s essential wheat and corn exporter
- Weather & Geopolitics are still the market’s biggest wild cards—hard to model but impossible to ignore
- 2025 Harvest Estimates: Black Sea and Danube countries will harvest 145 M mt of wheat and 80 M mt of corn
- EU Quota Cap: Brussels capped Ukrainian wheat imports at 1.3 M mt/year, Kyiv has to find new buyers in MENA and Asia
- MENA Corn Share: Black Sea countries are losing their share of the MENA corn market to Brazil
- Critical situation with corn in Serbia due to prolonged drought
- Poland: Improved wheat yield due to favorable weather
- 2025 Oilseed Boom: Sunflower plus soy are set to push regional output to record highs
- Sunflower Tease: New-crop bids for October deliveries are quietly firming
- Sunflower seed traders face a tug-of-war between tight early-season supplies and arriving soon harvest volumes
- Rising soybean supplies keep crushers activity through May–August, capping sharp price spikes
- Rapeseed 2025 yields are up y/y
- As India’s import window opens, expect a price war between Ukrainian and russian sunflower oil shipments
Read also
Argentina completes 2024/25 soybean harvest
US farmers have nearly caught up on the pace of winter wheat harvesting
Traders raise rapeseed prices in Ukraine on condition of fast delivery
Indonesia signs MOU, pledges to double US wheat purchases over 2026-2030
Black Sea–Danube region: Oilseed crop outlook grows more optimistic
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