MARKET SIGNALS TO WATCH, June 20 – 27, 2025

CONTENT Black Sea & Danube Grain / Oilseed Report:

Black Sea & Danube Grain Report: https://ukragroconsult.com/en/publication/black-sea-danube-grain-report/

Black Sea & Danube Oilseed report: https://ukragroconsult.com/en/publication/black-sea-danube_vegoil-report/

All articles are available in the AgriSupp platform: https://agrisupp.com/en

Ukraine

• Harvest in Odesa region began two weeks ahead of schedule
• Mass harvest of 2025 crops is now underway in Odesa, Mykolaiv, Kherson, and Dnipropetrovsk, with winter wheat, barley, peas, and rapeseed already being cut
• Harvest starts early in the south, crop conditions remain favorable in the north
• Winter barley is fully ripe and being harvested actively across southern regions
• Spring frosts and soil moisture deficit caused localized crop losses, especially in early sown cereals
• Despite earlier concerns, winter crops in Sumy region are in good condition — recent light rainfall had no major impact
• Rapeseed harvest started in Odesa and Mykolaiv — but initial yields are disappointing
• Export of soybeans and soybean products remains high in June — showing firm demand, especially in EU and Middle East markets
• Export duty back on the table: Ukraine revisits 10% tariff on soy and rapeseed

Black Sea & Danube region

• Farmers are caught between weather risk, weak demand, and mounting storage costs/logistics challenges
• The Black Sea may harvest big — but will it sell well?
• Extreme weather has reversed early optimism, likely slashing yield potential for wheat, barley, corn
• The war premium is fading — and fundamentals are back in charge
• Black Sea sunflower: stability before the storm?
• Romania extended the import license system for Ukrainian agri-products until Dec 31, 2025
• Poland: Gdynia agri-export hub can be developed into regional grain logistics leader
• Wheat imports to North Africa are forecast at 30.5 M mt in 2025/26, up 15% vs 2019/20
• russia expanded its wheat share in Egypt, and gained a foothold in Algeria and Morocco after the war started in Ukraine
• Morocco — hit hard by droughts in 2020 and 2022 — became one of the top wheat buyers globally
• Tunisia is returning to Ukrainian wheat, giving exporters another chance to rebuild lost market share
• Sunflower area hits a new high – again more than earlier forecasted

Tags: Black Sea region, Ukraine, wheat, sunflower oil, sunseed, harvest, rapeseed, corn, crop forecast, grain, Danube region, Romania, price, EU, Oilseed, soybean