MARKET SIGNALS TO WATCH, June 20 – 27, 2025

Source:  UkrAgroConsult
BSG-BSO-issue

CONTENT Black Sea & Danube Grain / Oilseed Report:

Black Sea & Danube Grain Report: https://ukragroconsult.com/en/publication/black-sea-danube-grain-report/

Black Sea & Danube Oilseed report: https://ukragroconsult.com/en/publication/black-sea-danube_vegoil-report/

All articles are available in the AgriSupp platform: https://agrisupp.com/en


Ukraine

  • Harvest in Odesa region began two weeks ahead of schedule
  • Mass harvest of 2025 crops is now underway in Odesa, Mykolaiv, Kherson, and Dnipropetrovsk, with winter wheat, barley, peas, and rapeseed already being cut
  • Harvest starts early in the south, crop conditions remain favorable in the north
  • Winter barley is fully ripe and being harvested actively across southern regions
  • Spring frosts and soil moisture deficit caused localized crop losses, especially in early sown cereals
  • Despite earlier concerns, winter crops in Sumy region are in good condition — recent light rainfall had no major impact
  • Rapeseed harvest started in Odesa and Mykolaiv — but initial yields are disappointing
  • Export of soybeans and soybean products remains high in June — showing firm demand, especially in EU and Middle East markets
  • Export duty back on the table: Ukraine revisits 10% tariff on soy and rapeseed

Black Sea & Danube region

  • Farmers are caught between weather risk, weak demand, and mounting storage costs/logistics challenges
  • The Black Sea may harvest big — but will it sell well?
  • Extreme weather has reversed early optimism, likely slashing yield potential for wheat, barley, corn
  • The war premium is fading — and fundamentals are back in charge
  • Black Sea sunflower: stability before the storm?
  • Romania extended the import license system for Ukrainian agri-products until Dec 31, 2025
  • Poland: Gdynia agri-export hub can be developed into regional grain logistics leader
  • Wheat imports to North Africa are forecast at 30.5 M mt in 2025/26, up 15% vs 2019/20
  • russia expanded its wheat share in Egypt, and gained a foothold in Algeria and Morocco after the war started in Ukraine
  • Morocco — hit hard by droughts in 2020 and 2022 — became one of the top wheat buyers globally
  • Tunisia is returning to Ukrainian wheat, giving exporters another chance to rebuild lost market share
  • Sunflower area hits a new high – again more than earlier forecasted

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