MARKET SIGNALS TO WATCH, June 13 – 20, 2025

CONTENT Black Sea & Danube Grain / Oilseed Report:

Black Sea & Danube Grain Report: https://ukragroconsult.com/en/publication/black-sea-danube-grain-report/

Black Sea & Danube Oilseed report: https://ukragroconsult.com/en/publication/black-sea-danube_vegoil-report/

All articles are available in the AgriSupp platform: https://agrisupp.com/en

• Black Sea & Danube: Weather reversed early optimism of the 2025 harvest
• Black Sea & Danube countries: Corn is still undervalued if the drought intensifies
• Black Sea & Danube countries: Policy and liquidity may become as important as weather in shaping 2025 oilseed harvest
• Droughts, Demand, and Diverging Strategies Across Black Sea & Danube
• Grain price volatility will stay elevated. Wheat barley prices may appear more bullish due to Black Sea weather fears and stronger demand, but only in the short term
• Freight market may tighten by late 2025, especially if Ukraine’s export volumes rebound
• In June SB and SBM exports from Ukraine remain high m/m
• Weather: Critical drought in Bulgaria and Hungary, stable conditions in Ukraine and Poland
• COCERAL pegs Romania’s 2025 corn at just 8.4 M mt, well below the official 10 and even below UkrAgroConsult’s more cautious 8.9 M mt
• Barley: drought, damage, disappointment in early harvest
• Importers are waiting for new-crop sunflower oil at attractive prices
• The 2025/26 key drivers: Active markets, weather risks, and bullish crush demand
• Oilseed export regulation tightening – domestic crushers win unlike Ukraine
• Will russia in 2025/26 once again impact global wheat market through large exports and strategic dumping?
• Rapeseed: Firming in Poland and russia; rapeseed forwards rising on solid demand
• russian new record in sunflower oil exports to Turkey
• Poland, Hungary & Serbia Grain Market Update: Exports Slide, Margins Squeezed, Pressure Mounts Ahead of Harvest
• Area shifts: Hungary slashes rapeseed area, Serbia doubles down on processing
• Poland holds strong in rapeseed trade
• From July 1, 2025, Turkey raises Bosporus and Dardanelles transit tolls by 15% – the fourth hike since 2022

Tags: Oilseed, soybean, Black Sea region, Ukraine, wheat, sunflower oil, sunseed, harvest, rapeseed, corn, crop forecast, grain, Danube region, Romania, price, EU