MARKET SIGNALS TO WATCH, July 4 – 11, 2025

CONTENT Black Sea & Danube Grain / Oilseed Report:

Black Sea & Danube Grain Report: https://ukragroconsult.com/en/publication/black-sea-danube-grain-report/

Black Sea & Danube Oilseed report: https://ukragroconsult.com/en/publication/black-sea-danube_vegoil-report/

All articles are available in the AgriSupp platform: https://agrisupp.com/en

Ukraine

• Ukraine debates over a 10 % duty on soy and rapeseed, margin shift to crushers is possible, the EU readies countermeasures
• Corn, sunflower are locally under drought and hail risk
• Harvest late, farmers keep premium quality wheat, first yields at 2.51 mt/ha vs 3.12 mt/ha last year
• Indonesia will increase US wheat imports, intensifying competition with Ukraine
• Sunflower oil exports in July were higher m/m
• Sunflower seed and soybean markets are refocusing on the new crop, but trade is weak
• Delivery costs from Ukraine to Europe are significantly cheaper than last year
• Ukrainian Ukrzaliznytsia cut grain-wagon rent to 303 UAH/day (€7.6) to increase volumes

Black Sea & Danube region

• Wheat production in the EU significantly increased, with Spain expecting a record harvest for 20 years
• Black Sea and Danube market is widely discussing the amended EU-Ukraine agreement, where wheat import quota was increased to 1.3 M mt (up from 1 M mt discussed previously).
• Dryness in Serbia, Bulgaria and southern Ukraine build risks for crop yield. EU quotas and russia’s low export taxes increase volatility
• The regional wheat supply is modified by the delayed russian harvest, due to drought and logistical challenges
• Romania/Poland weather supports corn and rapeseed vegetation
• Regional corn is unusually firm despite sliding wheat and rapeseed all across Europe
• Reports about the corn conditions in Serbia are not consistent and clear
• Winter wheat (95 % of milling grade) faces fierce competition from Black Sea
• Although oilseed prices are growing locally in Ukraine, the general trend in the region is stagnation or decline
• Sunflower seed and rapeseed bids in Romania (€468–480/mt) and Bulgaria reflect price corridor
• Rapeseed crush capacity to rise to 35 M mt/y under 50 % sunflower seed, 30 % rapeseed, 20 % soy export taxes
• russia’s weather extremes make oilseed yield forecasts a guessing game
• Vegetable oil prices up two weeks at row. US to tax Indonesian/Malaysian palm oil – 32 % and 25 % correspondingly
• Record rapeseed crop in Poland, but crushers’ stocks are low, and the Ukrainian rapeseed import ban is contributing to the uncertainty

Tags: soybean, Black Sea region, Ukraine, wheat, sunflower oil, sunseed, harvest, rapeseed, corn, crop forecast, grain, Danube region, Romania, price, EU, Oilseed