MARKET SIGNALS TO WATCH, July 28 – August 4

UkrAgroConsult shares key highlights from Weekly Grain & Oilseed Reports (July 18-25, 2025).
Subscribe to Black Sea & Danube Grain Report and Black Sea & Danube Oilseed Report for the detailed market coverage.
Black Sea & Danube region:
- Growing offers from Black Sea suppliers limit grain price gains
- Growing milling/feed wheat spread reflects increasing quality premiums
- The usual spike in shipping demand postponed as April frosts and late spring planting pushed back harvest
- Serbia’s worst drought in half a century damaged corn & sunflower crop
- Prices are stable, but rain delays the harvest and may worsen the quality of grain and rapeseed in Poland
- Rainy finish of harvesting may increase drying costs
- Sunflower crop in russia may reach a record high despite drought
- russia wheat exports have slowed due to poor harvests in the south, but quality is high
- China reduces purchases of russian rapeseed but increases imports of processed products
- Ministry of Agriculture of russia lowers export duties on sunflower oil and meal
Ukraine:
- In 2025, grain acreage in Ukraine increased, displacing soybeans and rapeseed
- August 2025 weather will determine if Ukraine’s optimistic grain production forecasts come true
- Ukraine’s State Statistics Service reported larger-than-expected 2025 plantings
- Freights for the Black Sea – South China route fell to $34–36/mt versus $52–54/mt y/y
- China returned to the Ukrainian barley market, with over 300 K mt already shipped in 2025/26 season
- The law on 10% rapeseed export tax is still awaiting President of Ukraine’s signing
- First signals about the start of winter rapeseed sowing for the 2026 crop
- Uneven crop progress means harvest timing will vary sharply across Ukraine
- The start of the soybean harvest delayed
- Sunflower oil exports grew unusually in July
Analytical articles are also available in the AgriSupp platform.
Discover more about аgri market developments at the 11 International Conference BLACK SEA OIL TRADE on September 23 in Bucharest! Join agribusiness professionals from 25+ countries for a powerful start of the oilseed season!
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