MARKET SIGNALS TO WATCH, July 28 – August 4

UkrAgroConsult shares key highlights from Weekly Grain & Oilseed Reports (July 18-25, 2025).

Subscribe to Black Sea & Danube Grain Report and Black Sea & Danube Oilseed Report for the detailed market coverage.

Black Sea & Danube region:

• Growing offers from Black Sea suppliers limit grain price gains
• Growing milling/feed wheat spread reflects increasing quality premiums
• The usual spike in shipping demand postponed as April frosts and late spring planting pushed back harvest
• Serbia’s worst drought in half a century damaged corn & sunflower crop
• Prices are stable, but rain delays the harvest and may worsen the quality of grain and rapeseed in Poland
• Rainy finish of harvesting may increase drying costs
• Sunflower crop in russia may reach a record high despite drought
• russia wheat exports have slowed due to poor harvests in the south, but quality is high
• China reduces purchases of russian rapeseed but increases imports of processed products
• Ministry of Agriculture of russia lowers export duties on sunflower oil and meal

Ukraine:

• In 2025, grain acreage in Ukraine increased, displacing soybeans and rapeseed
• August 2025 weather will determine if Ukraine’s optimistic grain production forecasts come true
• Ukraine’s State Statistics Service reported larger-than-expected 2025 plantings
• Freights for the Black Sea – South China route fell to $34–36/mt versus $52–54/mt y/y
• China returned to the Ukrainian barley market, with over 300 K mt already shipped in 2025/26 season
• The law on 10% rapeseed export tax is still awaiting President of Ukraine’s signing
• First signals about the start of winter rapeseed sowing for the 2026 crop
• Uneven crop progress means harvest timing will vary sharply across Ukraine
• The start of the soybean harvest delayed
• Sunflower oil exports grew unusually in July

Analytical articles are also available in the AgriSupp platform.

Tags: harvest, rapeseed, corn, crop forecast, grain, Danube region, Romania, price, EU, Oilseed, soybean, Black Sea region, Ukraine, wheat, sunflower oil, sunseed