MARKET SIGNALS TO WATCH, July 18-25

Source:  UkrAgroConsult
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UkrAgroConsult shares key highlights from Weekly Grain & Oilseed Reports (July 18-25, 2025).

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Global trends:

  • Global 2025/26 pea production to grow, the main driver is russian crop recovery

Black Sea & Danube region:

  • Wheat quality is reported higher y/y, but some concerns remain
  • Romanian corn yield expectations are down due to drought-like weather with possible increase in demand for 2025/26 Ukrainian corn
  • Harvest slowed by rain in Poland
  • Black Sea & Danube: SFS is stressed by drought-like weather during the crop formation stages
  • Romanian SFS price continues to rise, while yield expectations started to fade
  • russia: zero SFO export tax will support farmers revenues
  • CPO prices are around $ 1,000/mt

Ukraine:

  • Limited farmer sales remained the key price driver
  • Ukrainian Parliament did not support the lifting of export duties on rapeseed and soybeans
  • Ukraine expects the largest pea crop since 2018. Early peas harvesting gives Ukraine a timing edge
  • China remains a key importer of peas at about 1.5 M mt, with a potential niche for Ukraine
  • Barley demand is seasonal and the price is expected to subside closer to September
  • Drought in Black Sea & Danube reduces corn harvest expectations with likely increase in 2025/26 Ukrainian corn exports
  • Only 1 M mt of rapeseed harvested compared to 3 M mt last year

Analytical articles are also available in the AgriSupp platform.

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