MARKET SIGNALS TO WATCH, July 18 – 25, 2025

CONTENT Black Sea & Danube Grain / Oilseed Report:

Black Sea & Danube Grain Report: https://ukragroconsult.com/en/publication/black-sea-danube-grain-report/

Black Sea & Danube Oilseed report: https://ukragroconsult.com/en/publication/black-sea-danube_vegoil-report/

All articles are available in the AgriSupp platform: https://agrisupp.com/en

Global trends

• Global 2025/26 pea production to grow, the main driver is russian crop recovery

Ukraine

• Limited farmer sales remained the key price driver
• Ukrainian Parliament did not support the lifting of export duties on rapeseed and soybeans
• Ukraine expects the largest pea crop since 2018. Early peas harvesting gives Ukraine a timing edge
• China remains a key importer of peas at about 1.5 M mt, with a potential niche for Ukraine
• Barley demand is seasonal and the price is expected to subside closer to September
• Drought in Black Sea & Danube reduces corn harvest expectations with likely increase in 2025/26 Ukrainian corn exports
• Only 1 M mt of rapeseed harvested compared to 3 M mt last year

Black Sea & Danube region

• Wheat quality is reported higher y/y, but some concerns remain
• Romanian corn yield expectations are down due to drought-like weather with possible increase in demand for 2025/26 Ukrainian corn
• Harvest slowed by rain in Poland
• Black Sea & Danube: SFS is stressed by drought-like weather during the crop formation stages
• Romanian SFS price continues to rise, while yield expectations started to fade
• russia: zero SFO export tax will support farmers revenues
• CPO prices are around $ 1,000/mt

Tags: grain, Danube region, Romania, price, EU, Oilseed, soybean, Black Sea region, Ukraine, wheat, sunflower oil, sunseed, harvest, rapeseed, corn, crop forecast