MARKET SIGNALS TO WATCH, July 11 – 18, 2025

CONTENT Black Sea & Danube Grain / Oilseed Report:

Black Sea & Danube Grain Report: https://ukragroconsult.com/en/publication/black-sea-danube-grain-report/

Black Sea & Danube Oilseed report: https://ukragroconsult.com/en/publication/black-sea-danube_vegoil-report/

All articles are available in the AgriSupp platform: https://agrisupp.com/en

Global trends

• Vegetable oil markets ended last week positively.

Ukraine

• Barley exports in the 2024/25 were 2.18 M mt, the lowest since 2012/13.
• China is back: 200 K mt of barley were shipped from Ukraine in the first half of July.
• Low yields in southern Ukraine forced a reduction in the forecast for the 2025 barley harvest.
• Farmers prefer to make deals in EURO trying to hedge FX risks.
• Sunflower oil exports in July exceeded May figures.
• Rapeseed and soybean export duty changed the oilseed market.
• Will rapeseed remain attractive to farmers at the beginning of winter sowing?
• Kharkiv region: topsoil and 50 cm layer at 4–20% moisture — critical for corn and sunflower.
• Delivery costs from Ukraine to Europe are significantly cheaper than last year.

Black Sea & Danube region

• Europe’s interest in importing Ukrainian oilseed crops (including rapeseed) and protecting European crushing industry.
• The high 2024/25 rapeseed margin will influence farmers’ decisions regarding crop distribution for the 2026 harvest.
• Sunflower seed and soybeans markets refocus on the new crop, but trade is weak.
• russia July 2025 wheat exports estimated at 2.4 M mt.

Weather conditions – Black Sea & Danube region

• Hungary, Bulgaria, Ukraine: precipitation deficit is critical; drought returns quickly even after short rains.
• russia, Bulgaria, Hungary, Ukraine are affected by heat and drought.
• Romania: sharp contrast between the northern and southern parts — rains hinder harvesting in the north, while heat stresses crops in the south.

Tags: price, EU, Oilseed, soybean, Black Sea region, Ukraine, wheat, sunflower oil, sunseed, harvest, rapeseed, corn, crop forecast, grain, Danube region, Romania