MARKET SIGNALS TO WATCH, July 11-18

Source:  UkrAgroConsult
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UkrAgroConsult shares key highlights from Weekly Grain & Oilseed Reports (July 11-18, 2025).

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Global trends

  • Vegetable oil markets ended last week positively.

Ukraine

  • Barley exports in the 2024/25 were 2.18 M mt, the lowest since 2012/13.
  • China is back: 200 K mt of barley were shipped from Ukraine in the first half of July.
  • Low yields in southern Ukraine forced a reduction in the forecast for the 2025 barley harvest.
  • Farmers prefer to make deals in EURO trying to hedge FX risks.
  • Sunflower oil exports in July exceeded May figures.
  • Rapeseed and soybean export duty changed the oilseed market.
  • Will rapeseed remain attractive to farmers at the beginning of winter sowing?
  • Kharkiv region: topsoil and 50 cm layer at 4–20% moisture — critical for corn and sunflower.
  • Delivery costs from Ukraine to Europe are significantly cheaper than last year.

Black Sea & Danube region

  • Europe’s interest in importing Ukrainian oilseed crops (including rapeseed) and protecting European crushing industry.
  • The high 2024/25 rapeseed margin will influence farmers’ decisions regarding crop distribution for the 2026 harvest.
  • Sunflower seed and soybeans markets refocus on the new crop, but trade is weak.
  • russia July 2025 wheat exports estimated at 2.4 M mt.

Weather conditions – Black Sea & Danube region

  • Hungary, Bulgaria, Ukraine: precipitation deficit is critical; drought returns quickly even after short rains.
  • russia, Bulgaria, Hungary, Ukraine are affected by heat and drought.
  • Romania: sharp contrast between the northern and southern parts — rains hinder harvesting in the north, while heat stresses crops in the south.

Analytical articles are also available in the AgriSupp platform.

For almost 30 years of expertise in the agri markets, UkrAgroConsult has accumulated an extensive database, which became the basis of the platform AgriSupp.

It is a multi-functional online platform with market intelligence for grains and oilseeds that enables to get access to daily operational information on the Black Sea & Danube markets, analytical reports, historical data.

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