Malaysia: Palm Oil Market To Stabilise In 2026 On Export Growth

Source:  BusinessToday

Malaysia’s palm oil market is expected to stabilise in 2026, underpinned by stronger export growth and easing production, as global demand improves amid more competitive pricing, according to the Malaysian Palm Oil Council (MPOC).

MPOC projects palm oil exports to rise to 16.2 million tonnes in 2026, while production is forecast to moderate at 19.7 million tonnes as oil palm trees enter a natural resting phase following a solid performance in 2025. The combination is expected to support a healthier supply-demand balance and gradual stock normalisation.

In the latest update, MPOC shared that Malaysia’s palm oil production declined 5.3% month-on-month to 1.93 million tonnes in November, while exports slipped to 1.21 million tonnes, weighed by softer demand from Sub-Saharan Africa and the European Union (EU).

MPOC noted that EU demand eased after confirmation of a 12-month delay in the EUDR, reducing the need for precautionary stockbuilding.

The weaker export performance pushed palm oil stocks to 2.83 million tonnes, the highest level since March 2019.

However, MPOC said this should be viewed as a short-term imbalance rather than a structural oversupply, particularly as Indonesia’s palm oil stocks are expected to tighten by year-end.

Looking ahead, MPOC expects palm oil prices to remain range-bound between RM3,800 and RM4,100 in January, supported by seasonally lower production and improving demand ahead of the Lunar New Year and Ramadan, even as abundant oilseed supplies cap upside in the near term.

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