Malaysia: CPO price capped at RM4,050 in May before recovery, says MPOC

The Malaysian Palm Oil Council (MPOC) expects palm oil prices to remain within the RM3,750 to RM4,050 per tonne range in May 2025, before gradually recovering amid weak energy prices and biodiesel margins.

“From June to September, global vegetable oil import demand is expected to shift in favour of palm oil, limiting further downside pressure on prices,” said MPOC in a statement on Tuesday.

Since April, palm oil prices have dropped by 18%, while soybean oil prices have climbed by 7%. Crude oil prices declined by 20% over the same period, the statement said.

The MPOC said this is due to global vegetable oil and energy markets being under pressure over the past two months, amid the US-China trade war, as well as the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (Opec) ramping up crude oil production, starting in June.

The council also reported that palm oil production rose sharply in April by 298,000 tonnes, compared to the previous month, partly because harvesting was delayed due to the monsoon season.

Production is expected to continue rising moderately from May to September, although growth may be tempered by the high base effect, according to MPOC.

It said palm oil stocks rose by 303,000 tonnes in April, which is the highest level in six months.

“Sub-Saharan Africa remained the leading destination for Malaysian palm oil exports, with a 24% increase during the first four months of 2025. The Asean region also recorded [an] 8% growth, while exports to other regions declined,” said the council.

In the biodiesel sector, demand remains weak due to tight margins. Biodiesel production fell by 24% in the first two months of 2025 in the US, with significant declines in the consumption of key feedstocks; canola oil by 57%, soybean oil by 33%, and used cooking oil by 31%, the statement added.

The MPOC reported that total global biodiesel output is projected to shrink by 1.7 million tonnes this year, with the US accounting for over half of the amount. In contrast, Indonesia’s biodiesel consumption remained stable at 1.9 million tonnes for the same period, which is up 2% from 2024.