Lower U.S. spring wheat yields to cut production

The U.S. Department of Agriculture’s crop production and world agricultural supply and demand estimates reports were released July 11 with the main focus on the wheat, corn and soybean estimates.

Corn and soybean production was reduced by 115 million and five million bushels, respectively.

This came as no surprise to the markets because the production changes were driven by the reduced acreage in the June report.

This flowed through to lower production as yields were left unchanged. Wheat production increased by eight million bu. as higher yields offset the reduction in acreage.

The wheat estimate was the first surveyed estimate of spring wheat and durum production.

The estimates for the northern Plains states are of most interest to western Canadian farmers because they provide insight into what is in store for Prairie crops.

Other spring wheat yields were estimated at 51.7 bu. per acre, which was down from the 52.5 bu. per acre last year. This resulted in spring wheat production reaching 504 million bu. Hard red spring wheat production came in at 469 million bu., which was down by 34.4 million bu. from last year.

The drop in spring wheat production was due to a drop in yields across the region.

Montana’s wheat yield dropped by two bu. per acre to 24 bu. per acre. South Dakota’s yield dropped by two bu. per acre, while North Dakota reported the same yield (59 bu. per acre) as last year. Minnesota yields were up by 0.5 bu. per acre to 69 bu. per acre.

North Dakota saw the largest drop in production as lower area pushed production down by 20.6 million bu. to 289.1 million bu.

Durum production in the United States is expected to drop slightly from last year to 79.7 million bu. This represents a loss of 320,000 bu. from 2024 output.

The yield pattern by state is similar to spring wheat, with Montana reporting a two bu. per acre reduction to 21 bu. per acre. North Dakota yields were unchanged at 47 bu. per acre, which resulted in production at 55.2 million bu.

Barley production increased to 147.8 million bu. as higher yields and area increased output. Yields in Idaho increased by three bu. per acre, which resulted in production hitting 58.2 million bushels.

Montana yields dropped by three bu. per acre, while North Dakota yields remained unchanged. This increased North Dakota output to 30.1 million bu. as area increased by 10 million acres.

Oat production in the U.S. is forecast to drop by 5.6 million bu. to 62.2 million bu. Yields dropped by one bu. per acre to 75.5 bu. per acre. Yields in Minnesota dropped from last year, which pulled the overall average down.

The results of the first USDA survey in the northern U.S. Plains area point to lower yields in 2025, but the drop is relatively small.

The most significant drop is in HRS production, which is primarily due to lower area. This mirrors the expectation for the Canadian crop, which is expected to see lower yields in 2025.

Tags: crop, oat, estimates, corn, barley, soybeans, Production, wheat, yields