Low soybean supply supports prices in Ukraine, but increased crop forecast in Brazil increases pressure on quotes

The Russian occupiers’ attacks on the port infrastructure of the Odessa region continue and have already led to the suspension of grain acceptance and export shipments, as well as a decrease in grain purchase prices. On the night of December 23, Russia carried out another massive attack with strike UAVs on the south of the Odessa region, as a result of which the energy, port, transport, industrial and residential infrastructure was damaged. These attacks damaged a civilian ship under the Lebanese flag in one of the districts, which was transporting Ukrainian soybeans, but there were no casualties.

In Ukraine, due to the decrease in the soybean harvest, farmers are restraining sales, so exporters are keeping purchase prices for soybeans high, while prices for sunflower and wheat have plummeted. However, after the damage to the soybean ship, prices will probably also start to decline.

Export purchase prices for GM soybeans with delivery to Black Sea ports remain at $418-425/t or UAH 18,200-18,400/t.

Despite the fact that some processors have sharply reduced their purchase prices for GM soybeans by UAH 1,000/t to UAH 17,000/t, others are keeping prices at a high level of UAH 17,800-18,500/t with delivery to the factory.

It should be noted that soybean exports from Ukraine from September 1 to December 18 amounted to only 890 thousand tons, and given that active soybean exports will not resume during the month, processors will have significant volumes of soybeans for processing, especially against the backdrop of a sharp increase in supply from Brazil in January – February and a drop in prices for soybeans and soybean meal.

January soybean futures in Chicago fell another 1.7% to $386.4/t in the last week, losing 6.9% in the month due to low export rates from the US to China. Therefore, prices for Ukrainian soybeans at $420/t are quite high, which farmers should take advantage of.

According to the forecast of the consulting company AgRural, soybean production in Brazil in the 2025/26 MY will reach 180.4 million tons, which will exceed the November estimate (178.5 million tons) and the previous season’s harvest (171.5 million tons), Oil World reports.

As experts noted, weather conditions in Brazil in December were favorable, but the prospects for the oilseed harvest in most areas still remain uncertain.

“The size of the harvest, as before, will depend on the weather in January and February and, in some areas, in the first half of March,” AgRural emphasized.

It is also reported that the harvesting of the new soybean crop has already begun in certain areas of the states of Paraná and Mato Grosso.

“Harvesting is expected to continue in these regions in the coming days, but more active progress is forecast only in January, weather permitting,” the report says.

Tags: soybean, prices