La Niña slows soybean planting and narrows Brazil’s 2025/26 production outlook

The La Niña weather phenomenon has caused irregular rainfall across major soybean-producing regions of Brazil, disrupting October fieldwork and already affecting yield potential for the 2025/26 season. While a record harvest is still possible, the production outlook has tightened — a shift that could influence market prices and farmers’ financial performance.

Pine Agronegócios is among the consultancies that have downgraded their production estimates. The firm reduced its initial projection from 178.5 million tonnes to 175 million tonnes. This is now below the latest estimate from the National Supply Company (Conab), which forecasts soybean output at 177.6 million tonnes — 3.6% higher than the 171.48 million tonnes harvested in 2024/25.

According to Pine director Ale Delara, soybean planting is behind schedule from Minas Gerais northward. In Paraná, fieldwork is almost complete except in the eastern region, where heavy rains caused delays. Some areas in western Mato Grosso also reported drought-related issues leading to replanting. As of November 23, Conab reported that planting had reached 78% of the expected area, compared with 83.3% at the same time last year.

The consultancy Datagro also trimmed its forecast, though it remains relatively optimistic. Its estimate was reduced from 183.2 to 182.9 million tonnes. Analysts highlight that delayed planting caused by irregular rains is particularly evident in Goiás, where productivity is expected to fall from a record 4,190 kg/ha this season to 3,900 kg/ha next season. At the same time, Rio Grande do Sul could become the decisive region for Brazil’s 2025/26 output, with significantly improved yields expected after last year’s “disastrous” harvest.

Weather risks linked to La Niña remain a key concern, especially in southern Brazil. Meteorologists warn that rainfall in Rio Grande do Sul will stay highly irregular through December, requiring careful management during planting. In contrast, most central and northern regions are forecast to receive frequent rains that should support crop development. Improved rainfall will also benefit soybean areas in Matopiba, where dry conditions slowed planting. Farmer Alexsander Rudimar Borghetti welcomed the return of rain after nearly 20 dry days, saying it finally allowed fieldwork to resume.

Tags: Brazil, soybean, crop forecast