Kenyan farmers abandon wheat cultivation

Kenyan farmers are increasingly abandoning wheat in favor of other crops such as barley, which is expected to worsen supply shortages and increase imports. This could further pressure the shilling exchange rate, which has been hovering around 129 shillings per dollar for more than a year, the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) has warned. Wheat production in Kenya is concentrated mainly among large-scale farmers in Meru, Laikipia, Nakuru, Uasin-Gishu and Narok counties.

Kenya meets only 8% of its annual wheat demand from domestic production, relying on imports for the remaining 92%. In 2023, domestic production was 135,000 tonnes, while consumption has grown to 2.2 million tonnes and has been increasing over the past five years. The deficit of about 2 million tons is being filled mainly by supplies from Russia, as well as from Argentina and Canada. According to the USDA, the area sown to wheat in the current marketing year (from July 2025 to July 2026) will decrease by 9.1% – to 100 thousand hectares.

This opens the door to increased imports, as demand for wheat is expected to be at 2.73 million tons – 2.6% more than previously. Wheat stocks held by private traders and mills will decrease by 9% – to 508 thousand tons from 558 thousand tons. “Wheat production will decrease by 5.6% due to a reduction in harvested area as farmers respond to problems with the domestic support program,” the USDA said in its latest report. According to the Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) forecasts, imports will reach 2.45 million tonnes to compensate for the increase in demand and the decline in local production.

The Kenyan government, through the Food and Agriculture Authority (AFA), attributes the decline in wheat area to several factors: farmers switching to alternative crops, the threat of quelea birds, which increases production costs, and the ongoing fragmentation of land due to population growth. In 2024, wheat plantings decreased by 1.83% to 102,287 hectares from 104,200 hectares in 2023. At the same time, production increased by 0.48% to 310,973 tonnes from 309,483 tonnes, thanks to favorable weather and government fertilizer subsidies.

In contrast, barley plantings increased by 5% to 13,929 hectares in 2024, and production increased by 47.6% to 48,237 tonnes. Barley imports also jumped by 14% to 1.87 million tonnes to fill the consumption gap. Under the Wheat Purchase Programme (WPP), mills recognized by the East African Community (EAC) Customs Union continue to benefit from a reduced import duty rate of 10% (instead of the standard 35%) if they purchase local wheat at agreed prices before obtaining import licenses. Wheat imports fell to 1.81 million tonnes in 2024 from 1.99 million tonnes in 2023, thanks to government measures to stabilize the market.

Tags: wheat, margin, Kenya