Kazakhstan. 2024/25 season and MY 2025/26 outlook

UkrAgroConsult

Article author:

Elizaveta Malyshko

Head of Market Research

Officially reported Kazakhstan grain crop in 2024 is largest from 2012 being 25.2 M mt, up 47.4% y/y. This sharp increase changed both export capacity and the regional prices.

The key factor behind the increase in wheat production was yield, which jumped to 1.52 million tonnes/ha, up 53% from the previous year. This confirms that the increase in wheat plantings in 2024 was driven by yield rather than area expansion.

Barley clearly benefited from favorable weather conditions and strong export demand.

Corn remains a secondary crop in the grain balance of Kazakhstan and was the only grain crop with a decrease in production.

Thanks to the large crop,  total grain/flour exports rose to 11.8 M mt, up 31% y/y, driven mainly by wheat and flour.

Wheat exports were 7.4 M mt, the second-highest result on record after the 8.0 M mt shipped in 2022/23. Kazakhstan once again confirmed its role as a key regional wheat supplier.

Uzbekistan and Tajikistan remain top buyers. Azerbaijan moved into third place as price spreads favored Kazakh origin. This was Azerbaijan’s largest purchase from Kazakhstan in ten seasons.  China, which had been a top-three buyer in the previous season, sharply reduced imports.

The 2025/26 harvest is complete, and although final figures are not yet available, it is clear that Kazakhstan has produced one of the strongest harvests on record for the second year in a row.

A key feature of the new season is the high proportion of feed wheat, typical of years with large harvests. The distribution of quality will be more important than the total volume for pricing and destination markets.

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Tags: Kazakhstan, export, grain, barley, wheat