Japan’s corn use, imports expected to rise

Corn imports and consumption are forecast to increase in Japan for marketing years 2023-24 and 2024-25 as the country’s poultry layer population recovers from outbreaks of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) and feed demand rises while global prices soften, according to the Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) of the US Department of Agriculture.

In its Global Agricultural Information Network (GAIN) report, the FAS said it anticipates robust import demand for corn in both marketing years as the country is highly dependent on imported ingredients to produce formula feed.

Total corn consumption is seen at 15.32 million tonnes in 2023-24 and 15.35 million tonnes in 2024-25, due to slight increases in food, seed and industrial (FSI) use. Each marketing year, feed and residual use is pegged at 12 million tonnes. Corn is the primary ingredient for formula feed, accounting for a little less than 50% of the inputs for the estimated 24 million tonnes of total formula feed production in Japan.

To meet corn demand, Japan is expected to import 15.3 million tonnes in 2023-24 and 15.35 million tonnes the following marketing year. Japan imports corn predominantly from the United States and Brazil and switches between them seasonally based on prices.

Meanwhile, the FAS forecasts food wheat and rice consumption to slightly decrease in 2023-24 and 2024-25 as Japan’s population declines and the shift in age demographics changes consumption trends. Furthermore, inflation fueled by the weak Japanese yen has caused consumers to reduce food purchases.

FSI consumption for wheat in 2024-25 is projected at 5.45 million tonnes, down 0.4% from the 2023-24 estimate, and total demand is seen at 6.1 million tonnes. Production will increase slightly in 2024-25 to 1.16 million tonnes, up slightly from 1.14 million tonnes the previous year.

“While per capita wheat consumption has been stable in recent years averaging at slightly over 30 kilograms per year, per capita wheat consumption will face a moderate downward trend as the population ages and decreases its carbohydrate intake,” the FAS said.

Rice production is anticipated to fall 1% to 7.2 million tonnes in 2024-25, which continues a trend of the past decade caused primarily by the exit of small-scale farms, declining table rice demand and aging farmers and fewer younger farmers.

Rice consumption for 2024-25 is forecast at 7.95 million tonnes, which has been fairly stable in recent years. Imports are expected to reach 685,000 tonnes in 2024-25, down slightly from 688,000 tonnes from a year ago.

Tags: corn, Japan