Iran in 2026: Why grain suppliers will be reshuffled and where Black Sea can win
UkrAgroConsult
Article author:
Iran in 2026 cut government subsidies for all staple food imports except wheat. The Iranian Ministry of Agriculture (MAJ) will continue to subsidise wheat imports at a preferential exchange rate of 285,000 Rials/USD.
Given the constant economic uncertainties and the rapid population growth (over 88 M people), food security in Iran is turning into the most vital mission.
Against the global sanctions, Iran attempts to achieve self-sufficiency in grain production (wheat, barley, corn and rice). However, droughts for the past six years make it impossible to provide the farmers with water.
Iran’s wheat import pattern is special: even when domestic wheat covers food needs, imports can rise to support flour exports, because Iran restricts the use of domestically produced wheat for flour production and then export to neighbors. That results in wheat imports even if national wheat crop looks comfortable.
Base-case for 2026: russia and Kazakhstan remain the core wheat suppliers because they can execute via Caspian routes and through EAEU-linked trade formats.
Unlike wheat, corn in Iran is deeply limited by water deficit and feed demand. That keeps Iran among the top importers and makes corn the most sensitive to general economic conditions. Ukraine used to be a major corn supplier before 2022. By 2026 exports are banned officially, and the market share was taken mainly by Brazil, with russia exports being unpredictable.
The US has imposed new sanctions targeting the ‘shadow fleet’ used for oil exports. President Trump also stated about possible 25% tariff on all imports to the US from any country that continues to do business with Iran.
Due to that, the Iranian government is actively purchasing food to build up stocks in anticipation of a potential tightening of the economic blockade.
Full version of the article is available to subscribers of ‘BLACK SEA & DANUBE GRAIN’ Weekly Report by UkrAgroConsult.
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