Initial results of Black Sea wheat futures launch from Romania and Bulgaria

In the first month since its launch in early June 2025, approximately 160,000 metric tons of wheat have been traded, with the contract gaining traction in regular trading. The new Black Sea Wheat (CVB) Financially Settled (Argus) futures contract connects exports from Romania and Bulgaria, shipped from the ports of Constanța, Varna, and Burgas, to the global market, offering traders a tool for risk management and arbitrage opportunities.

CVB wheat prices closely correlate with other Black Sea markets, particularly Novorossiysk (correlation coefficient of 0.97), making them an effective hedging tool. Since 2020, Romania and Bulgaria have exported over 56 million tons of wheat, with around 13 million tons in the 2024–2025 marketing year. Price volatility remains high (15–30% since September 2023), driving interest in risk management through trading.

Basis trades allow traders to account for transportation, quality, and local supply-demand factors. For instance, an Egyptian miller could purchase 50,000 tons of Romanian wheat at $35 per ton over CVB futures ($220 per ton), locking in the price via an Exchange of Futures for Physical (EFP) to hedge against price risks.

CVB futures enable forward price fixing, fostering strategic supplier relationships. Listed on CME Group, the contract is cash-settled, eliminates counterparty risk, and supports hedging up to 15 months. Its high price correlation with other Black Sea markets enhances its effectiveness as a hedging tool.

With the new harvest season underway, trading volumes for CVB futures are expected to grow, solidifying their role as a key benchmark for the Black Sea wheat market.

Tags: Bulgaria, Romania, wheat