Indonesia’s rice, corn crops seen declining

Rice and corn production in Indonesia is forecast to decline in marketing year 2025-26 despite another year of favorable weather, while wheat imports climb to meet feed and consumer demand, according to a report from the Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) of the US Department of Agriculture.

Consecutive plantings of paddy increase the risk of higher pest and disease incidence, which can lead to harvest failure, the FAS noted in its recent report. Combined with land conversion to non-agricultural uses, paddy harvested area will be reduced for the country’s primary crop.

Harvested area and rice production is forecast to decline to 11.25 million hectares and 52.6 million tonnes, respectively, in 2025-26 from 11.4 million hectares and 53.7 million tonnes the previous year.

Based on Indonesian Statistics Agency (BPS) reports and recent field observations, the FAS did not make any changes to the 2024-25 harvested area and production.

“Nonetheless, as historically experienced, continuous rainfall during the generative phases of paddy’s growth tend to result to lower yield or harvest failure,” the FAS said.

Due to ample supply from local production, however, the government of Indonesia has stated that it will not issue any authorization for Indonesian National Logistics Agency (BULOG) to import rice, other than specialty varieties, in 2025-26, according to the FAS.

Corn is a secondary crop after paddy for Indonesian farmers. Competition with other secondary crops providing higher income will reduce harvested areas of corn and output in 2025-26 as well, the FAS said.

The 2025-26 corn harvested area is estimated to decline 4.2% to 3.45 million hectares from 3.5 million hectares in 2024-25. Stronger yield from the use of high-yielding hybrid corn seeds and GE seeds are not expected to offset the harvested area decline with corn production forecast to dip 3.2% to 13 million tonnes from 13.1 million year on year.

All locally produced corn is used for feed. The poultry industry consumes about 90% of domestic animal feed supplies with aquaculture accounting for 6% and cattle and swine the remaining 4%.

“Nonetheless, the government will continue reducing corn import quota for industry in 2025-26, which is already forcing corn wet millers to shut down in late 2025,” the FAS said.

Indonesia does not grow wheat, and imports in 2025-26 are forecast to increase to meet higher demand from the growing feed and poultry industries and greater consumer demand for wheat-based foods.

Wheat imports for 2025-26 are forecast to rebound to 12 million tonnes compared with 10.45 million tonnes the previous year. Australia remains the major supplier of wheat to Indonesia with a 41.6% market share, followed by Canada (19.3%) and Ukraine (17.3)%.

The Indonesian flour mill industry continues to expand for the nation of about 286 million people. It currently consists of 31 flour mills with a total installed capacity of 14.8 million tonnes, adding one flour mill and 400,000 tonnes of installed capacity in the past year.

“In line with population growth, urbanization rate, new flour-based food trends, and increased consumer demand for food diversity, prospects for continued growth in the industry remain bright,” the FAS said.

Tags: Indonesia, harvested area, weather, rice, Canada, Production, wheat, flour, forecast, Australia, imports, Ukraine, paddy, corn, demand