Indian monsoon delivers

India’s Southwest Monsoon really delivered this year.

Seasonal cumulative rainfall for the June 1 through Sept. 30 period was eight per cent above the 50-year average, according to the India Meteorological Department.

Central India received 19 per cent more than normal, while the South Peninsula was 14 per cent above average.

The country is growing its kharif (summer-planted) crops, including tur or pigeon peas. Much of that production is in those central and southern regions.

Pigeon peas are a crop Canada’s pulse farmers monitor because both green and red lentils are used as substitutes when India’s production is small.

AgPulse Analytica analyst Gaurav Jain said pigeon pea acreage is up this year, and growing conditions are better than last year.

He is forecasting 4.3 million tonnes of production, up from 2.85 million tonnes last year.

“The increased supply of pigeon peas will dampen the import demand this season, and the same is evident from the trade data for the past three to four months,” he said in an email.

He is forecasting “significantly lower” red and green lentil imports as a result.

Vivek Agrawal, director of JLV Agro, an Indian commodity brokerage firm, said the excessive rain may have damaged crop quality, but it has been beneficial for yields.

“This year’s seeding is particularly high, which contributes to high production,” he said in an email.

The Government of India provided free pigeon pea seed to small farmers and has guaranteed that it will buy the crop at or above its minimum support price.

“So, we expect a large crop, and everything appears to be going well so far,” said Agrawal.

Green lentils are still in high demand in southern India, where they are generally sold through tenders. He doesn’t see any change in green lentil demand.

However, Russia is undercutting Canada on price, so that may reduce demand for Canadian green lentils.

Overall, he believes India has a good supply of pulses this year and will import less than last year, resulting in stable prices.

The big exception to that rule is yellow peas. India has already bought 2.5 million tonnes, and another 1.5 million tonnes of demand is expected, said Agrawal.

The U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) also shared some thoughts on India’s Southwest Monsoon.

“Monsoon withdrawal was delayed by a week to September 23 and is likely to further exacerbate crop damage during harvest,” it said in a recent report.

It feels that heavy rain could damage standing crops, such as rice, pulses, corn, cotton and soybeans.

“Excess rains have caused waterlogging in standing crops and could trigger various diseases,” said the FAS.

The good news is that India’s Central Water Commission reports that the 150 reservoirs it tracks are at 87 per cent of total storage capacity, up from 71 per cent the same time last year.

“Overall, reservoir storage levels are much improved and bode well for rabi (winter-sown) crops,” stated the FAS.

Jain made similar comments in his email.

“From the current rainy spell in southern parts of the country, we do not see large-scale damage to crops, and it will be helpful for the rabi season, as the soil moisture profile and the reservoirs will be at a better mark,” he said.

Rabi season pulses include lentils and chickpeas, which are two other crops Canadian farmers will be monitoring.

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Tags: kharif, lentils, corn, crops, rainfall, pigeon peas, rice, soybeans, Production, India, pulses, monsoon, demand