India has started the 2025 wheat harvest

Wheat production in India is expected to remain almost at the level of last season this year, which increases pressure on the government to abolish or reduce import duties to replenish record low stocks. According to experts, the harvest will amount to 106 mln tonnes, which corresponds to the 2023 figure, but is slightly lower than the forecast of the Indian Flour Mills Association (110 mln tonnes).

The harvesting of early wheat has already started in the central regions of the country, but farmers are concerned about the impact of high temperatures on late varieties in the northern regions. According to Donald Keaney, a meteorologist at Maxar Technologies, drought and lack of precipitation may create additional stress for late wheat, which will negatively affect yields.

The rise in wheat prices is already felt by Indian consumers – in early March, grain prices were almost 8% higher than a year earlier. This complicates the country’s ability to replenish stocks. The Indian government plans to purchase 31 million tons of wheat from farmers at guaranteed prices for social programs.

According to the president of the Millers Association, the country needs imports to solve the problem of low stocks. He noted that it is possible to import 2 to 3 million tons of wheat at a reduced duty, especially for the southern regions. Earlier, India imposed a ban on wheat exports in 2022 due to the record heat wave that reduced production.

Although forecasts for further warming remain, some regions are experiencing lower daytime temperatures and cooler nights. Gyanendra Singh, the former head of the Indian Wheat and Barley Research Institute, noted that 85% of the acreage is planted with heat-resistant wheat varieties, which can partially mitigate the negative effects of weather conditions.

Tags: harvesting, crop forecast, India