India: Conducive weather boosts prospects of robust wheat harvest

The prospects of robust production of wheat, a key rabi crop, looks bright, if the weather holds good in the next four to six weeks, officials and traders said. Higher output is likely to ease domestic supply situation.

“Current crop conditions is conducive because of recent rains and cooler weather conditions helped higher tillering, leading to increase number of grain-bearing heads,” Ratan Tiwari, director, Indian Institute of Wheat and Barley Research, Karnal based institute under Indian Council for Agricultural Research (ICAR) told FE.

Tiwari has ruled out any reports of yellow or brown rusts in the wheat crop so far. “Favorable weather conditions are supporting vegetative growth and tillering of wheat”, according to an advisory issued by the institute to the farmers.

Wheat sowing this season has increased to 32 million hectare (Mha) against 31.56 Mha last year and higher than the average sown area of the last five year.

Wheat harvest in last three years had been adversely impacted by excessive heat prior to harvesting of crop and unseasonal rains in March

Navneet Chitlangia, president, Roller Flour Millers Federation of India said while currently it’s a ‘lean’ period in terms of supplies, there are ample stocks with the millers before new crops start arriving in the market by March.

“Given encouraging crop conditions so far due to conducive weather, wheat output is likely to be higher than the previous year,” Chitlangia said.

He also stated that current mandi prices of wheat which are ruling around Rs 3100/quintal in Delhi are likely to decline once new harvest starts arriving in the market over the next six weeks.

“While global wheat prices are lower than domestic prices, the mandi prices are likely to rule around Rs 2600/quintal as Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan have announced a bonus of Rs 125/quintal over the minimum support price (MSP) of Rs 2425/quintal announced by the centre for 2024-25 rabi marketing season (April-June).

According to the agriculture ministry, wheat output in the 2023-24 crop year (July-June) is estimated at 113.29 million tonne (MT).

The crop estimate for the 2024-25 crop year is expected to be released next month.

At present, FCI has 17 MT of wheat stock against the buffer of 13.8 MT for January 1. Under the open market sale scheme commenced last month, 0.9 million tonne (MT) of wheat have been sold to bulk buyers such as flour millers and processors through weekly e-auctions.

The government has allocated 2.5 MT of wheat to be sold in the open market aimed at curbing spike prices in the current fiscal from central pool stock. FCI is offloading wheat at a price excluding transportation at Rs 2,325/quintal, according to an official statement.

In FY24, the corporation had sold a record 10 MT of wheat in the open market.

Inflation in wheat was 7.84% in December, 2024 on year. Inflation has been in single digit since August, 2023.

Agriculture Minister Shivaraj Singh Chouhan recently held a meeting with officials and reviewed the progress of rabi sowing, weather conditions, and pest surveillance through the National Pest surveillance system.

“The overall crop coverage and crop condition is better than previous year,” according to an official statement. Punjab, Haryana, Madhya Pradesh, Uttar Pradesh, Rajasthan, Bihar and Gujarat are the key wheat growing states.

Tags: output, sowing, stock, harvest, prices, weather, Production, wheat, crop