In 2023/24 MY, a small deficit of sugar is expected on the world market
In the new season, which will begin in October, world sugar consumption is projected to exceed production by 290 thousand tons, as Brazilian production will not be able to compensate for losses in Asia, which suffered from bad weather conditions. This is reported by Reuters.
According to forecasts published on Friday by brokerage and analyst StoneX, in 2023/24 MY (October-September), global demand for sugar will be 192.2 million tons, while production is estimated at 191.9 million tons, so the world sells sugar stocks to meet demand.
StoneX predicts that new production in India will be only 30 million tons, which is 8.5% less than last year, while in Thailand production is expected to decrease by 22% to 8.9 million tons.
These two Asian countries are usually the most important exporters after Brazil, but they will have nothing to sell abroad in the season that is about to begin, as drier than usual weather has hurt production.
The Indian government is unlikely to allow sugar exports.
StoneX said that the situation has already been priced in by the market: raw sugar prices on ICE are hovering near their highest level in 12 years.
Oil production in the central-southern region of Brazil is estimated at a record 40.8 million tons, which helped keep world trade almost balanced.
StoneX expects that this American country may show another large production next year, but this will depend on the precipitation from November to March. It is estimated that in 2024/25 MY (April-March) Brazil will produce 629 million tons of sugarcane and 41.1 million tons of sugar.
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