Improved weather in the US reduced wheat prices by 1.2-2.2% after speculative Friday’s growth of 2.7-3.8%

Snowfall in the winter wheat growing regions of the US was able to cover crops with a sufficient layer of snow before frosts of -10…-20 ^°C, which, against the backdrop of forecasts of rising temperatures, reduced the speculative impact on prices and led to their decline after Friday’s jump.

Yesterday, March wheat futures fell:

• by 2.2% to $217.5/t – for soft winter SRW wheat in Chicago,
• by 2.2% to $225.5/t – for hard winter HRW wheat in Kansas City,
• by 1.2% to $232.8/t – for durum spring HRS wheat in Minneapolis,
• by 0.6% to €228.25/t or $238.1/t – for wheat on the Euronext exchange in Paris.

During the week in Texas, the number of winter wheat crops in good or excellent condition decreased by 35 to 33%, although traders expected worse figures.

Wheat exports from the US fell by 56% to 250,000 tonnes between February 7 and 13, putting pressure on quotations. In total, exports in the MY 2024/25 amounted to 14.85 million tonnes, which is 22.45% ahead of last year’s pace.

1-2 cm of snow fell in Ukraine, which will slightly protect crops from night frosts of -10…-14 ^° C, but next week temperatures will rise above 0 ^° C and new waves of precipitation will pass.

Export demand prices for Ukrainian wheat in Black Sea ports increased by $2-4/t per week:

• for food – up to $226-230/t or 10800-10900 UAH/t,
• for feed – up to $222-224/t or 10,450-10,600 UAH/t.

Dry weather and rising grain prices for the 2024 harvest have led to a sharp increase in forward prices for new crop wheat. Traders are currently offering $210-215/t for food wheat ($170/t last year), and $200/t for feed wheat with delivery to the Black Sea ports.

If the amount of precipitation in Ukraine increases within two weeks, prices will stabilize under the pressure of low global demand and a seasonal increase in supply from US and EU farmers.

The Directorate General of Food (DGF) of Bangladesh is holding a tender for the purchase of 50 thousand tons of flour wheat of any origin (except for Israeli production) with shipment to the ports of Chittagong and Mongla within 40 days after signing the contract. The best price was offered by the Russian company Aston – $ 295.21 / t CIF liner out. There are also offers from Cereal Crops ($ 306 / t), Aditya Birla ($ 309.87 / t), Agrocorp ($ 299.92 / t). The results of the tender are not yet known.

Tags: prices, wheat