After reaching a six-year high last year, global wheat flour trade is forecast to decline by 6% in the 2024-25 trading season, to 15.9 million tonnes, according to the International Grains Council (IGC). Global trade reached 17 million tonnes in 2023-24.
The IGC lowered its projection by 200,000 tonnes (wheat equivalent) from its July estimate.
“The annual drop is partly linked to envisaged smaller purchases by Iraq, the world’s second largest importer, but with sub-Saharan imports also seen retreating after the previous year’s upturn on potentially reduced deliveries from Turkey,” the IGC said in its quarterly report.
With a temporary wheat import ban in place that was only partially eased this month, the forecast for Turkey, the world’s largest flour exporter, was scaled back markedly since July, the IGC said. Turkish shipments during the first two months of the current trading season were estimated at 700,000 tonnes, down by more than one-third from 2023-24. The Council sees Turkey retaining its standing as the leading exporter, but its total outgo is forecast at 4.4 million tonnes, down from the record 5.7 million tonnes a year ago and slightly below the five-year average.
Flour shipments from other top exporters such as Kazakhstan, Russia and Egypt were revised higher from the previous quarterly forecast. Amid rising production estimates, exports by Kazakhstan are seen rising by 300,000 tonnes from the previous quarter to a seven-year high of 3.2 million.
“While July shipments were fractionally lower year on year, deliveries are set to accelerate following the conclusion of the local harvest, with the bulk expected to be destined for Afghanistan, where imports are also forecast to expand,” the IGC said. “However, anecdotal evidence of this season’s widespread local crop quality issues raises some uncertainty about Kazakhstan’s export potential.”
On the import side, Iraq’s intake in 2024-25 was revised lower by 200,000 tonnes. If realized, it would be a 600,000-tonne reduction year on year to 1.3 million, the IGC said.
“With imports seen capped by ample local supplies and potentially less attractive offers from Turkey, the country’s imports during 2024-25 could be the lowest since 2012-13,” the IGC noted.
The other significant reduction in imports is expected in sub-Saharan Africa, where projected intake was lowered by 400,000 tonnes from the July forecast to 2.6 million tonnes, well below last year’s seven-year high of 3.1 million.
Afghanistan, the world’s top flour importer, is seen increasing its intake by 250,000 tonnes from the previous year to 3.3 million tonnes, the IGC said.
