IGC lowered its corn production forecast

Due to increased disease and drought in the Southern Hemisphere, the International Grains Council (IGC) has revised its forecast for global corn production for 2024-25, down 7 million tons from its March forecast.

Despite the decrease from the previous month, the projected corn production of 1.226 billion tons would still be a record, exceeding last year’s record by 2%, the IGC said in its April 18 grain market report.

The forecast for total cereal (wheat and coarse grains) production was lowered by 10 million tons from March to 2.322 billion tons, but that would still be a record.

The IGC attributed the lower overall grain production forecast from the previous month to “lower residual production” and “lower U.S. corn production.”

World wheat production in 2024-25 is forecast at 798 million tons, virtually unchanged from the previous month and 9 million tons higher than last year. If this happens, it would be the second-largest wheat crop on record, after 803 million tons in 2022-23.

The new forecast for total residual grain stocks was lowered by 9 million tons from last month to 592 million tons. However, this would still be slightly higher than the 2023-24 total of 591 million tons, halting an eight-year decline.

In addition, global cereal trade is set to decline 2% to 418 million tons, “mainly due to reduced wheat and (corn) supplies.”

IGC said this year’s soybean crop is expected to exceed last year’s record by 3.3% to 403 million tons.

The IGC Grains and Oilseeds Price Index came in slightly below the March forecast, driven by net declines in soybeans, rice and wheat prices. April’s price index of 224 is 21% lower than the same month last year.

Tags: corn, IGC, crop forecast