IGC: Global grain supply to reach new heights

With global grains production forecast at an all-time high of 2.412 billion tonnes in the 2025-26 marketing year, total supply is projected to reach a record 3 billion tonnes, according to the International Grains Council’s (IGC) most recent Grain Market Report.

The monthly report, released on Sept. 18, upgraded output for all grains except for rye. The IGC projected an 87-million-tonne increase (4%) in total grains (wheat and coarse grains) year on year, and an 8-million-tonne increase from the previous month.

“Despite unusually small carry-in stocks, the record crop will lift total supply above 3 billion tonnes for the first time ever,” the IGC said.

Wheat output is pegged at 819 million tonnes in 2025-26, a 2.5% increase year on year, while corn production is forecast to reach 1.297 billion tonnes, up 5% from 2024-25, the IGC said.

An increase in corn carryover stocks to 294 million tonnes will push the total grains reserves up 3% year on year to 606 million tonnes, still slightly short of the prior five-year average, the IGC said.

Trade of total grains is seen reaching 438 million tonnes, up 15 million tonnes from the previous year. If realized, it would be the second highest on record, the IGC said.

World soybean production is projected to remain steady in 2025-26 at 429 million tonnes, it said, “as gains in South America compensate for falls elsewhere.”

“Total use is seen advancing by 3% year on year as feed, food and industrial segments boosts processing to a peak,” the IGC said. “After the prior year’s solid gain, inventories could tighten. Trade is predicted at a record (185 million tonnes) on firmer Asian interest.”

The IGC forecasts global rice production at a record 544 million tonnes “with the population trend expected to boost uptake to a new peak.”

Rice trade is predicted to rise by 2% year on year, with India accounting for 40% of overall trade.

The IGC Grains and Oilseeds Index was little changed from last month, with a 4% decrease in prices from the previous year. Rice prices have dropped by 33% during that time, offsetting gains in corn and barley.

Tags: forecast, stocks, rye, coarse grains, corn, IGC, rice, soybeans, Grains, Production, wheat