If the drought in Ukraine persists, the UGA will have to lower the wheat harvest forecast for 2025/26 MY

According to the Ukrainian Grain Association (UGA), wheat production in Ukraine in 2025/26 MY may decrease by 10-15% from the current forecast if dry weather conditions persist.

“If the drought in Ukraine persists in the first half of May, we will have to lower our forecast for the wheat harvest in Ukraine for 2025/26 MY by 10-15% from the current expectations of 22.5 million tons,” said the President of the Ukrainian Grain Association Mykola Gorbachev. Last year’s harvest, according to the UGA, amounted to 22.4 million tons. The association noted that the increase in sown areas should compensate for a slight decrease in yield. However, worsening weather conditions may destroy this stable forecast.

According to World AgWeather, below-normal rainfall is expected in Ukraine over the next 14 days, which could increase crop stress and threaten yields. Even with a 15% reduction in the forecast, the UGA figure is significantly different from the USDA FAS estimate, which recently released its first forecast for Ukraine’s 2025/26 wheat production at 17.9 million tonnes — down 23% year-on-year and the lowest level since 2013.

It is worth noting that the USDA FAS forecast is based on the latest available data from the Ministry of Agrarian Policy on the area sown (4.38 million hectares), and not on the final official estimate, which has not yet been released by the State Statistics Service of Ukraine. Instead, market estimates place winter wheat acreage closer to 4.7 million hectares, suggesting that the USDA FAS production forecast may be understated compared to current market expectations.

Tags: crop forecast, Ukraine, grain, UGA