The renewed military conflict between Afghanistan and Pakistan, which escalated on February 27, along with ongoing hostilities in Iran, may partially reshape flour supply flows to the Afghan market. According to industry experts, Kazakhstan could replace a portion of Iranian flour supplies to western Afghanistan, although the volumes involved are expected to remain limited. Overall, the situation is unlikely to have a significant impact on Kazakh flour millers due to strong competition from Uzbekistan.
Five years ago, Pakistan accounted for up to 30% of Afghanistan’s flour imports, primarily supplying southern regions bordering Pakistan. The remaining 70% came from Kazakhstan, Russia, and Iran. However, following the change of власти in Afghanistan, trade relations with Pakistan deteriorated. In 2023–2024, a poor harvest in Pakistan sharply reduced its export capacity. During this period, Uzbekistan strengthened its position in the Afghan market, while official large-scale Pakistani flour shipments virtually disappeared.
Experts believe Kazakhstan is unlikely to significantly increase its flour exports to Afghanistan under current conditions. Uzbekistan has become the dominant supplier, benefiting from several competitive advantages. In recent years, Afghan investors have actively built and financed flour mills in Uzbekistan, targeting the Afghan market while sourcing wheat, including from Kazakhstan.
Another important factor is the gradual recovery of Afghanistan’s domestic milling industry. The country is increasingly importing wheat rather than flour, including growing volumes from Kazakhstan. Although wheat imports remain smaller than flour imports for now, the upward trend is evident.
Logistics also play a crucial role. Transit of Kazakh flour through Uzbekistan is more expensive, with the price difference between Uzbek and Kazakh flour reaching around $25 per ton. Additionally, lower labor and electricity costs in Uzbekistan make its flour more competitive compared to Kazakh products.
At the same time, military actions in Iran could temporarily redirect supply flows in western Afghanistan, with part of the Iranian flour potentially replaced by shipments from Russia and Kazakhstan. However, these volumes are expected to be modest. Overall, market participants believe that the current geopolitical tensions will not fundamentally change the situation for Kazakh millers, as competition with Uzbekistan will remain the key factor shaping the Afghan flour market.
